推迟退休对“城职保”社会统筹基金收支平衡的影响研究

发布时间：2018-10-05 11:22

【摘要】：进入21世纪，中国的人口老龄化趋势不断加深，对社会统筹养老金收支平衡构成了严峻挑战。通过养老保险参数调整来减少基金缺口，改善养老金收支状况，实现制度良性运作已成为多数学者的共识。而我国现行的法定退休年龄已不能适应当前的基本国情，因而退休政策改革成已为参数调整的优先选项，推迟退休年龄已是大势所趋。本文以对我国未来人口老龄化的预测分析为基础，结合养老金收支预测模型，分析了未来的统筹养老金收支平衡状况。同时，在借鉴国际经验的基础上，结合中国的人口、就业及制度赡养率变化等因素制定推迟退休方案，，并进一步量化分析了改革方案对统筹养老金收支平衡的影响。最后，在研究结论的基础上，本文提出了可供参考的政策建议。除绪论外，本文主要分为五章，具体内容安排如下：第一章：相关概念界定及理论基础。本章节着重对研究中需要使用的几个重要概念进行了内涵和外延的界定，同时对人口转变理论、生命周期理论、代际交叠模型和社会统筹基金收支平衡理论等相关理论基础进行论述。第二章：城市职工退休政策的现状及改革的合理性。本章一方面介绍了中国城镇职工退休年龄的现行规定，指出了当前退休制度存在的问题，另一方面也分析了当前推迟退休的合理性。第三章：现行退休政策下的社会统筹基金收支缺口的测算。本章在“六普”数据的基础上，对未来的缴费人口数和退休人口数进行了预测，并以当前的退休政策为基础，结合养老金供需模型与相关参数设定，进一步测算了中国未来的社会统筹养老金收支缺口。第四章：推迟退休的方案设计及对社会统筹基金收支平衡影响的实证测算。本章在综合考虑人口、就业等因素的基础上，从合理起始点、目标退休年龄这两个角度入手，设计了三种步骤不同的推迟退休方案。并从收入、支出和收支结构这三方面，对比分析了几种方案对社会统筹基金收支平衡的影响。第五章：研究结论与政策建议。综上分析，得出推迟退休之必要性、未来统筹养老金收支缺口具体状况、延退的实施步骤及对养老金收支结构的影响等相关结论。并且，针对结论提出具体可行的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, the aging trend of China's population is deepening, which poses a severe challenge to the balance of social pension income and expenditure. It has become the consensus of most scholars to reduce the fund gap, improve the income and expenditure of the pension and realize the benign operation of the system by adjusting the parameters of the pension insurance. But the current legal retirement age in our country can no longer adapt to the current basic national conditions, so the reform of retirement policy has become a priority option for parameter adjustment, and it is the trend of the times to postpone the retirement age. Based on the prediction and analysis of the future aging population in China and the forecast model of pension income and expenditure, this paper analyzes the balance of pension income and expenditure in the future. At the same time, on the basis of drawing lessons from international experience, combining with the changes of population, employment and system support rate of China, this paper formulates the deferred retirement scheme, and further quantifies the influence of the reform scheme on the balance of pension income and expenditure. Finally, on the basis of the research conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for reference. In addition to the introduction, this paper is divided into five chapters, the specific content is arranged as follows: chapter 1: the definition of relevant concepts and theoretical basis. This chapter focuses on the connotation and extension of several important concepts that need to be used in the research, at the same time, the theory of population transition, the theory of life cycle, The intergenerational overlapping model and the theory of balance of income and expenditure of social fund are discussed. The second chapter: the status quo of urban worker retirement policy and the rationality of reform. On the one hand, this chapter introduces the current regulations of retirement age of urban workers in China, points out the problems existing in the current retirement system, on the other hand, analyzes the rationality of delaying retirement at present. The third chapter: the current retirement policy under the social balance fund income and expenditure gap measurement. On the basis of "six common" data, this chapter forecasts the number of future contributory and retired population, and based on the current retirement policy, combined with the pension supply and demand model and related parameters. Further calculate the gap of pension income and expenditure in the future. Chapter four: the scheme design of delaying retirement and the empirical calculation of the impact on the balance of income and expenditure of social overall fund. Based on the comprehensive consideration of population, employment and other factors, this chapter designs three different deferred retirement schemes from the point of view of the reasonable starting point and the target retirement age. From the three aspects of income, expenditure and structure of income and expenditure, this paper compares and analyzes the effects of several schemes on the balance of income and expenditure of social funds as a whole. Chapter V: conclusions and policy recommendations. Based on the above analysis, the author draws some conclusions, such as the necessity of postponing retirement, the specific situation of the gap of pension income and expenditure in the future, the implementation steps of delaying retirement and the influence on the structure of pension income and expenditure. At the same time, put forward concrete and feasible policy recommendations to the conclusion.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F842.67

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