中国碳排放强度预测与第三产业比重检验分析

发布时间：2018-02-25 05:30

本文关键词： 碳排放强度离散二阶差分预测模型第三产业比重 VAR模型脉冲响应函数　出处：《经济管理》2012年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：中国政府提出2020年单位GDP的碳排放与2005年相比降低40%～45%的目标,第三产业的快速发展对其起推动作用。本文在论述离散二阶差分方程预测模型(DDEPM)推导过程的基础上,将DDEPM与现有的碳排放预测方法进行比较,说明其优越性。其应用DDEPM,用Matlab编程,基于1980～2009年的碳排放数据、GDP数据和第三产业数据,对2020年碳排放、GDP和第三产业进行预测。通过计算得出碳排放强度和第三产业比重的预测值。应用向量自回归模型(VAR),利用脉冲响应函数,从第三产业比重的角度,分析其对中国碳排放强度的影响。同时,整合碳排放强度与第三产业比重的预测数据,与实际数据一起进行向量自回归处理,其结果与碳排放强度与第三产业比重实际数据的向量自回归进行比较,从变化规律的角度检验DDEPM预测的准确度。
[Abstract]:The Chinese government has put forward the target of reducing carbon emissions per unit GDP by 40% or 45% in 2020 compared with 2005. The rapid development of the tertiary industry has played a role in promoting it. This paper discusses the derivation process of discrete second order difference equation prediction model. Compared with the existing methods of carbon emission prediction, the advantage of DDEPM is illustrated, which is based on the carbon emission data from 1980 to 2009 and the tertiary industry data. In 2020, the carbon emission GDP and tertiary industry were forecasted. By calculating the predicted value of carbon emission intensity and tertiary industry specific gravity, the vector autoregressive model was applied to predict the third industry proportion, and the pulse response function was used to analyze the third industry specific gravity. At the same time, integrating the forecast data of carbon emission intensity and the proportion of tertiary industry, and carrying on vector autoregressive processing together with the actual data, The results are compared with the actual data of carbon emission intensity and tertiary industry specific gravity, and the accuracy of DDEPM prediction is tested from the point of view of variation law.
【作者单位】：天津大学管理与经济学部;
【基金】：天津大学自主创新基金“基于TPM的低碳经济发展模式研究”(60304002)
【分类号】：F224;F719;F205

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