供给侧结构性改革背景下生产性服务业与制造业协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 21:23

本文选题：生产性服务业　切入点：制造业　出处：《成都理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化的大背景下,生产性服务业已逐渐发展成为发达国家的主导产业,成为各国在经济发展上的新增长点。然而,与发达国家相比,我国的生产性服务业与制造业在互动发展中却呈现出了“中国悖论”,即:我国的生产性服务业的发展进程远远滞后于我国制造业的发展进程,并且由于我国生产性服务业发展的相对滞后,从很大程度上就制约了我国制造业的发展。“中国悖论”的存在,说明了我国目前的生产性服务业的发展程度不能充分、有效地支撑和满足制造业企业的业务需求,这就导致了我国在进一步提升制造业核心竞争力上还存在着较大的阻力。在制造业产出比重降低的情况下,要实现“三去一降一补”的改革任务,就要进一步发展生产性服务业,从整体上进行“产业结构软化”。因此,本文结合我国的生产性服务业与制造业的发展现状及我国的生产性服务业发展滞后于制造业所带来的影响,通过收集整理2004年到2016年的生产性服务业增加值、制造业增加值、外商直接投资值作为变量,建立以Engle和Granger(1987)构建的误差修正模型(Error Correction,简称ECM模型)为基础的“三变量误差修正——二阶自回归分布滞后”模型来进行实证分析。在通过理论分析与实证分析相结合的方式进行分析后,发现在两个产业的短期互动发展中,我国的生产性服务业与制造业之间的互动、协调发展关系比较弱,但是在长期的互动发展中,我国生产性服务业与制造业之间呈现出了一种相对稳定的相互影响、相对协调的协调发展状态。最后,结合本文的研究结论和其他先进国家的经验做法,提出了相应的一些建议。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, producer services have gradually developed into the leading industries in developed countries and become new growth points in economic development. However, compared with the developed countries, In the interactive development of producer service industry and manufacturing industry in China, however, there is a "Chinese paradox", that is, the development process of producer service industry in China lags far behind the development process of manufacturing industry in our country. And because of the relative lag in the development of producer services in China, the development of manufacturing industry in China is restricted to a great extent. The existence of "China Paradox" shows that the development of producer services in our country is not sufficient at present. Effectively support and meet the business needs of manufacturing enterprises, which leads to the further improvement of the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in China there is still a greater resistance. In order to realize the reform task of "three go, one cut and one supplement", it is necessary to further develop producer services and to "soften the industrial structure" as a whole. This paper combines the present situation of producer service industry and manufacturing industry in our country and the influence that the development of producer service industry lags behind that brought by manufacturing industry, through collecting and sorting out the added value of producer service industry from 2004 to 2016, manufacturing added value. The value of foreign direct investment as a variable, An error Correction Model (ECM Model) based on Engle and Granger 1987) is established for empirical analysis, which is based on three-variable error correction and second-order autoregressive distribution lag model. The empirical analysis is carried out through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. After the analysis of the combined method, It is found that in the short-term interactive development of the two industries, the coordinated development relationship between producer services and manufacturing industry in China is weak, but in the long-term interactive development, There is a relatively stable interaction and coordinated development between producer services and manufacturing industry in China. Finally, combined with the conclusions of this paper and the experience of other advanced countries, Some suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F424

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