服务业乘数效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 04:34

本文选题：服务业　切入点：乘数效应　出处：《北京邮电大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：上世纪八十年代,全球产业结构进入新一轮的大升级,发达资本主义国家逐步进入贝尔的“后工业社会”阶段,“工业型经济”已向“服务型经济”转型。服务业对经济增长的贡献率稳步上升,成为其增长的重要动力,同时吸纳了大量的就业人口,保障了国家的安全稳定。而目前我国服务业的发展水平远落后于发达国家和一些新兴发展国家。目前,国内外学者对服务业的研究主要是根据实证展开的研究,对服务业的界定和分类尚有不统一,也缺少反映三大产业本质联系的理论分析,对于资本、技术与劳动密集度与就业的辩证关系也没有系统的阐述与实证。本文正是针对以上问题展开了对服务业的研究。本文首先从服务业概念入手,综合了国内外学者对服务业的定义,提出了自己的看法,并针对定义列举了服务业的性质,由性质推界定,再推分类。服务业的发展带动了经济发展并改变了经济结构,本文结合分析贝尔的三阶段理论、罗斯托的五阶段理论和西蒙·库兹涅兹的产业结构理论,来找到中国目前经济发展的阶段归属。并通过实际数据的检验和分析,发现了贝尔三阶段理论的局限性及各理论的应用范围。服务业的发展与国民经济相互促进,作者应用乘数理论建立数学模型,分析了农、工业劳动者对服务业劳动者收入的促进作用；通过建立三产业乘数矩阵模型分析了我国整体经济产生增加值的过程与机制,得到的结论为三产业劳动者的平均个人收入增加值的提高能带动整个经济的发展,同时边际消费倾向的大小是影响国民收入变化的关键性因素,边际消费倾向增大,则国民收入增加,采取有效措施拉动人民内需提高经济整体增长是快速发展我国经济的重要手段。本文结合配第一—克拉克定理及数学模型,综合分析了三次产业劳动生产率与就业的关系,并总结出服务业吸收就业的特点与服务业的增长规律。本文最后提出了我国服务经济发展中存在的问题、滞后的原因,明确了加快发展第三产业的意义,并根据前文分析归纳出解决服务业发展滞后的对策并对我国服务业进行了展望。我国只要继续完善第三产业法律法规,大力推进城市化建设,引导全社会转变就业观念,推行灵活多样的就业形式,大力发展现代服务业,加强服务人才培养,就能使中国第三产业的整体发展水平迈上一个新台阶。
[Abstract]:In -20s, the global industrial structure entered a new round of large-scale upgrading, Developed capitalist countries have gradually entered the stage of Bell's "post-industrial society", and the "industrial economy" has been transformed into "service-oriented economy". The contribution rate of service industry to economic growth has steadily increased, which has become an important driving force for its growth. At the same time, it absorbs a large number of employed people to ensure the security and stability of our country. At present, the development level of our service industry is far behind that of the developed countries and some new developing countries. At present, domestic and foreign scholars' research on service industry is mainly based on empirical research. The definition and classification of service industry are still not uniform, and the theoretical analysis reflecting the essential relationship between the three industries is also lacking. The dialectical relationship between technology and labor intensity and employment has not been systematically expounded and proved. This paper has carried out the research on the service industry in view of the above problems. This paper begins with the concept of service industry, synthesizes the definition of service industry from domestic and foreign scholars, puts forward its own views, and enumerates the nature of service industry in view of the definition, which is defined by nature. The development of the service industry drives economic development and changes the economic structure. This paper combines Bell's three-stage theory, Rostow's five-stage theory, and Simon Kuznets' industrial structure theory. To find out the stage attribution of China's current economic development. Through the examination and analysis of actual data, we find out the limitations of Bell's three-stage theory and the scope of application of each theory. The development of service industry and the national economy promote each other. The author applies multiplier theory to establish mathematical model, analyzes the promoting effect of agricultural and industrial workers on the income of service workers, analyzes the process and mechanism of adding value to the whole economy of our country by establishing the matrix model of three-industry multiplier. The conclusion is that the increase of the average personal income of the workers in the third industry can promote the development of the whole economy, and the magnitude of marginal consumption tendency is the key factor affecting the change of national income, and the marginal consumption tendency increases. If the national income is increased, it is an important means for the rapid development of our economy to take effective measures to stimulate the people's domestic demand and improve the overall economic growth. This paper combines the first Clark theorem and the mathematical model, This paper comprehensively analyzes the relationship between labor productivity and employment in three industries, and summarizes the characteristics of employment absorption in service industry and the growth law of service industry. Finally, the paper points out the problems existing in the development of service economy in China and the reasons for lagging behind. The significance of speeding up the development of the tertiary industry is clarified, and the countermeasures to solve the lag in the development of the service industry are summed up according to the previous analysis, and the prospects for the service industry in our country are also given. As long as we continue to improve the laws and regulations of the tertiary industry and vigorously promote the construction of urbanization, To guide the whole society to change the concept of employment, to promote flexible and diverse forms of employment, to vigorously develop modern service industries and to strengthen the training of service personnel, the overall development level of China's tertiary industry can be raised to a new level.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F719

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