我国服务业结构调整的就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 20:40

本文选题：服务业结构　切入点：就业效应　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国目前正处于供给侧改革的新时期,在结构性产能过剩、产业结构升级、发展方式转变的背景下,就业形势依然严峻。服务业已然成为我国的主导产业,大力发展服务业不仅能够带动经济增长,开拓市场,拉动内需,而且能够创造更多就业机会。然而改革开放以来,我国服务业发展滞后,内部行业差异明显,就业增速缓慢。与发达国家相比,仍然存在较大的差距。因此研究服务业结构调整的就业效应对国民经济具有重要的政策导向和现实意义。首先,以配第·克拉克定理为基本经济理论,结合产业结构与就业结构的相关内容,分别对三次产业产值结构、服务业产值结构、服务业内部就业结构进行了动态特征分析并指出服务业就业发展存在的问题。从就业弹性、比较劳动生产率以及结构偏离度的视角对服务业及其内部就业结构进行描述性统计分析。结果显示,服务业产值与就业在我国均占主要地位。传统服务业产值增速缓慢,就业趋于饱和;现代服务业拉动就业效果显著,行业结构性矛盾突出。其次,基于静态面板数据模型、Cobb-Douglas双对数模型,分别从整体到局部、数据特性到经济含义研究服务业结构的就业效应。以结构变化值的格兰杰因果检验来明确产出结构与就业结构的动态关联效应。从混合回归、固定效应和随机效应三方面检验面板数据的就业效应,得出产业就业与产值之间构成固定效应模型、就业受产业个体影响的结论。从服务业结构整体看来,产值对就业的边际影响较为微弱。此外运用双对数模型,对样本数据进行平稳性检验、协整分析,引入滞后变量并从经济含义上分析三次产业、服务业内部各行业之间的就业效应。实证结果显示,各行业当期就业与前期就业量密切相关,且就业吸纳弹性系数较大的行业具有广阔的就业上升空间。最后,基于投入产出表,测算中间产品需求系数和投入系数、感应度系数和影响力系数来分析服务业的关联和波及作用。具体地,以中间投入为视角,建立完全就业贡献模型,分析服务业对国民经济的直接和间接就业贡献。其中教育业直接就业贡献最大,金融业完全就业贡献最显著。以最终需求中的消费、投资、出口为要素来衡量服务业的就业拉动系数,其中批发零售业、交通运输、仓储邮政业以及金融业在三个要素的共同作用下,都有较高的就业拉动效应。实证结果表明,大力发展现代服务业,加强人才素质教育,合理优化服务业就业结构,是促进服务业就业发展的重要方面。
[Abstract]:China is now in a new era of supply-side reform. Under the background of structural overcapacity, upgrading of industrial structure and transformation of development mode, the employment situation is still grim. Service industry has become the leading industry in China. Vigorously developing the service industry can not only promote economic growth, open up markets, stimulate domestic demand, but also create more employment opportunities. However, since the reform and opening up, the development of our service industry has lagged behind, and the differences in internal industries are obvious. The employment growth rate is slow. Compared with the developed countries, there is still a big gap. Therefore, the study of the employment effect of the service industry restructuring has important policy direction and practical significance to the national economy. Based on the basic economic theory of Matty 路Clark's theorem, combining with the related contents of industrial structure and employment structure, the paper analyzes the structure of tertiary industrial output value and service industry output value, respectively. This paper analyzes the internal employment structure of the service industry and points out the problems existing in the employment development of the service industry. A descriptive statistical analysis of the service industry and its internal employment structure is carried out from the perspective of comparative labor productivity and structural deviation. The results show that both the output value of the service industry and employment are dominant in China, and the growth rate of the output value of the traditional service industry is slow. The employment tends to saturation; the employment effect of modern service industry is remarkable, and the structural contradiction of the industry is prominent. Secondly, based on the static panel data model, Cobb-Douglas double logarithm model, from whole to part, Study on employment effect of service industry structure from data characteristics to economic meaning. Use Granger causality test of structural change value to clarify the dynamic correlation effect between output structure and employment structure. This paper examines the employment effect of panel data from three aspects of fixed effect and random effect, and draws the conclusion that the fixed effect model between industrial employment and output value is formed, and the employment is affected by industry individual. From the view of service industry structure as a whole, The marginal effect of output value on employment is weak. In addition, using the double logarithmic model, the sample data are tested for stability, cointegration analysis, the introduction of lag variables and the analysis of three industries from the economic meaning. The empirical results show that the employment in the current period is closely related to the previous employment, and the employment absorption elasticity coefficient has a broad employment rising space. Based on the input-output table, this paper calculates the demand coefficient and input coefficient of intermediate product, inductivity coefficient and influence coefficient to analyze the correlation and ripple effect of service industry. Specifically, from the perspective of intermediate input, the contribution model of full employment is established. This paper analyzes the direct and indirect employment contribution of the service industry to the national economy. Among them, the direct employment contribution of the education industry is the largest, and the financial industry is the most significant. Export is the key factor to measure the employment pull coefficient of the service industry, in which wholesale and retail trade, transportation, warehousing and post industry, and the financial industry all have higher employment pull effect under the joint action of the three factors. It is an important aspect to promote the employment development of the service industry to develop the modern service industry, strengthen the quality education of talents and optimize the employment structure of the service industry.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F719;F249.2

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