我国第三产业波动态势及其与国民经济的联动关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 19:52

本文选题：第三产业 + 国民经济　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：第三产业，即我们一般意义上的服务业，在这个产业内涵不断丰富、产业结构逐步完善的当今社会，其涉及范围也不断扩大。从世界范围来说，第三产业的发达程度已经成为衡量一个国家或地区现代化水平和综合竞争力的重要标志；就中国而言，随着我国国民经济的高速发展、人民生活水平的日益提高，第三产业与其他两产业相比，其发展速度和增长比例表现更加突出。于是，越来越多的学者关注到这一“后起”产业，研究其迅速发展对于国民经济其他部分的影响作用。本文首先对于第三产业在整个国民经济中整体表现进行了一般性描述，利用中国统计年鉴中1978年至2011年的数据资料，选取年度增长率和增加值数据进行趋势比较，结果发现第三产业增加值的占比逐年增长，而随着第三产业占比的增加，我国国民经济的增长率波动也趋于稳定，因而我们得出了“第三产业的迅速发展对于国民经济的增长具有拉动作用，同时对经济的剧烈波动具有抑制作用”的猜想。而对于第三产业内部各产业的分析，我们借鉴中国统计年鉴的分类方法，将第三产业分为交通运输、仓储和邮政业（简称“交通仓储邮政业”），批发和零售业，住宿和餐饮业，金融业，房地产业，以及其他类型产业这六大类。选取这六大类产业的增长率年度指标分别与第三产业增长率数据进行比对，，进一步分时段（分1978~1993年、1994~2011年两阶段）考察六大类产业增长率与第三产业增长率的相关关系，并参考各产业总量占比情况，以贡献程度和相关程度作为选择依据选出交通仓储邮政业、批发和零售业、金融业与房地产业这四者，作为代表性产业，代替第三产业总体，进行与国民经济联动关系的分析比较。鉴于涉及第三产业与国民经济或其部分的互动关系研究之类的文献已经十分丰富，本文就从第三产业中筛选出四项代表性产业进行与国民经济联动关系的研究分析。本文选取GDP增长率和第二产业增长率作为国民经济的指标，分别研究四项代表性产业与此二者的关系。我们利用VAR模型，借鉴脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法得出了相应的互动关系。在一系列相互影响、联动变化的效果中，四项代表性产业影响效果各有侧重：交通仓储邮政业作为第三产业中占比最大的单一类型产业其影响效果无论对于GDP的增长抑或第二产业的增长都是最大的，批发和零售业对于GDP增长的冲击影响更加突出，房地产业对第二产业增长的影响效果更为明显，金融业“一正一反”冲击效果印证了其经济风向标的意义所在。以上代表性产业对于国民经济的联动关系及其意义，也反映了第三产业整体对于整个国民经济发展的重大意义。目前，国内对于第三产业进行研究的文献中，用来表现第三产业发展状况的指标绝大部分都是使用单一的第三产业总量、增量或增长率指标——这些数据指标对于第三产业的刻画程度略显单薄。本文探求通过科学严谨的方法——景气指数测算法，对于第三产业的发展态势进行更加详尽的刻画，丰富指标蕴含内容的同时，更能捕捉到及时准确的反馈发展趋势信息以及同其他国民经济数据的关系。实证结果也证实编制景气指数的方法是可行并有效的，本文编制出的第三产业一致景气指数，在样本区间内对于第三产业的发展态势刻画程度较为准确，解释能力将强；而它与宏观经济一致指数指标的对比分析再次证明了第三产业对于宏观经济增长的拉动作用与对于剧烈波动的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:The third industry, is our general sense of service industry, and constantly enrich the industry connotation in today's society, the industrial structure is gradually perfect, the scope is also expanding. In the view of the world, the developed degree of the third industry has become an important symbol to measure the modernization level of a country or region and the comprehensive competitiveness of China is concerned; and with the rapid development of our national economy, the increasing of people's living standard, the third industry is compared with the other two industries, the pace of development and growth in the proportion of the more prominent. Therefore, more and more scholars pay attention to this newcomerindustry and study its rapid development to affect other parts of the national economy.
Firstly, for the third industry in the whole national economy overall performance of a general description, using China statistical yearbook 1978 to 2011 data, taking the annual growth rate and increase the value of the data for trend comparison, found that the proportion of added value increased year by year the third industry, with third industries accounted for the increase, I the national economy growth rate volatility tends to be stable, so we come to the conclusion that "the rapid development of the third industry has promoted the growth of the national economy, at the same time the violent fluctuations of the economy is inhibited by the conjecture. For the third industry internal analysis, we use classification method China statistical yearbook, will the third industry is divided into transportation, storage and postal services (hereinafter referred to as" transportation storage postal industry "), wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering industry, financial industry, real estate Industry, industrial and other types of these six categories. The six categories of industry growth rate of annual index respectively compared with the third industry growth rate data, further divided period (1978~1993 years, 1994~2011 years two stage) study six kind of industry and the third industry growth rate by correlation between long rates, and reference the proportion of the total industry, the contribution and the degree of correlation is used as the basis for choosing transportation storage postal industry selected, wholesale and retail, the four financial industry and the real estate industry, as a representative of the industry, instead of the third industry in general, comparison and analysis of the relationship between the national economic linkage.
In view of such interaction study involving third industry and the national economy or the part of the literature is very rich, this paper selected from the third industry analysis and research of the relationship between the national economic linkage of four representative industries. This paper selects GDP and second industrial growth rate as the index of national economy, the relationship of four respectively. Representative industries and the two. We use the VAR model, using the impulse response function and variance decomposition method to get the corresponding interaction. In a series of mutual influence, the effect of changes in linkage, four representative industries have focused on the effect of transportation storage postal industry as the third industry accounted for the largest single type industry the effect for GDP growth or growth in the second industry is the largest. The influence of wholesale and retail trade for the impact of GDP growth More prominent, the effect of growth of the real estate industry of the second industry is more obvious, the financial industry "is an anti shock effect confirms the economic indicator of significance. The industrial linkage relationship and its significance for the national economy, but also reflects the significance of the third industry for the development of the national economy.
At present, the domestic research for the third industry in the literature for development in the third industry performance index is mostly using a total of third single industry, or incremental growth rate index -- these indicators for characterization of the third industry is slightly thin. This article explores the rigorous and scientific methods, index measuring method, characterization more detailed for the development of the third industry, the index contains rich content at the same time, it can capture the timely and accurate feedback of the development trend of information and relations with other economic data. The empirical results also confirmed that the method is feasible and effective index, this paper compiles the third industry consistent climate index in the sample the interval for the development trend of the third industrial characterization is more accurate, and it will explain the ability is strong; and the macro economy consistent The comparative analysis of index indicators again proves the role of the third industry in stimulating macroeconomic growth and the inhibition of violent fluctuations.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124;F719

【参考文献】