服务业国际转移下的中国服务业增长

发布时间：2018-04-16 22:09

本文选题：服务业国际转移 + 中国服务业增长　；参考：《南京大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：1990年以来,国际产业转移的主流领域从制造产业开始转向服务产业,国际服务业的产业转移兴起于发达国家之间市场贴近性的需要,而随着通讯技术和发展中国家开放程度的提高,发达国家和发展中国家之间的服务业产业转移成为一种新趋势。服务业国际产业转移的四种主要方式有：服务外商直接投资、服务外包、服务离岸以及非股权安排等,服务业转移带动着人力资源、技术管理等高级要素的流动,跨国公司在全球的视角下达到了资源的合理配置以及全球产业结构的调整和变迁。中国不仅仅是承接全球制造业转移的大国,同样也是服务业国际转移的重要承接国。中国服务业在利用外资投资中的比重是在一个不断增加的过程中,中国服务业在整个国民经济中的比重,占就业人口的比重也是呈现不断上升的趋势。中国服务业的发展符合全球发达国家经济发展过程中经济服务化的趋势,但参考美国以及其他发达国家的历史发展经验发现,在服务业不断上升的过程中都遭遇到生产率增长率急剧下降的影响,以致直接拖累了经济增长的步伐。这种现象由鲍莫尔定义为“服务业成本病”。“服务业成本病”的本质是服务业部门劳动生产率的滞后性和服务价格的缺乏弹性。“服务业成本病”的发生可能是一个国家在经济服务化和国民经济不断发展过程中的一个普遍的必然发生的现象。那么,服务业国际转移会不会导致中国服务业成本病的发生?服务业国际转移究竟会对中国服务业产生怎样的影响?这是本文试图探讨的两大问题。本文运用1995-2010年中国服务业的数据分析了由跨国公司主导的国际产业转移的动态传导机制,并通过拓展的鲍莫尔模型着重考察了在国际产业转移冲击下中国服务业增长的效率：中国服务业的劳动生产率的增长和滞后情况、服务业的就业比例与增长、服务业收入弹性和价格弹性的变化、服务业占国民经济比例比重的变化等。结论表明： 1.服务业国际转移并不会导致中国服务业成本病的发生。 2.服务业国际转移对中国服务业产生的影响具体表现在： (1)中国服务业劳动生产率的滞后程度开始收窄。 (2)中国服务业就业比例上升。 (3)中国服务业的收入弹性与价格弹性有变小的趋势。 (4)长期来看,中国服务业占GDP的比重随收入水平的提高而上升。
[Abstract]:Since 1990, the mainstream field of international industrial transfer has shifted from manufacturing industry to service industry. The industrial transfer of international service industry has arisen in the need of market closeness among developed countries.With the development of communication technology and the openness of developing countries, the transfer of service industries between developed and developing countries has become a new trend.The four main ways of international industrial transfer of service industry are: foreign direct investment in service, service outsourcing, offshore service and non-equity arrangement, etc. The transfer of service industry drives the flow of high-level elements such as human resources, technology management, etc.Multinational corporations in the global perspective of the rational allocation of resources and the adjustment and change of the global industrial structure.China is not only a large country undertaking global manufacturing transfer, but also an important recipient of international service transfer.The proportion of China's service industry in the utilization of foreign investment is in a process of increasing. The proportion of China's service industry in the whole national economy and the proportion of the employed population is also showing a rising trend.The development of China's service industry is in line with the trend of service-oriented economy in the process of economic development in developed countries around the world. However, referring to the historical development experience of the United States and other developed countries, it is found thatIn the process of rising service industries, the impact of a sharp decline in productivity growth has directly dragged down the pace of economic growth.This phenomenon is defined by Baumer as "service cost sickness."The essence of service cost disease is the lag of labor productivity and the inelasticity of service price.The occurrence of "service cost disease" may be a universal and inevitable phenomenon in the process of economic service and the continuous development of national economy.So, will the international transfer of service industry lead to the occurrence of cost disease in China's service industry?What kind of impact will international transfer of service industry have on Chinese service industry?These are two major problems this paper attempts to explore.This paper analyzes the dynamic transmission mechanism of international industrial transfer, which is dominated by multinational corporations, using Chinese service industry data from 1995 to 2010.And through the expanded Baumer model, the paper focuses on the efficiency of China's service industry growth under the impact of international industrial transfer: the growth and lag of labor productivity of China's service industry, the employment ratio and growth of the service industry.The change of income elasticity and price elasticity of service industry, the change of proportion of service industry to national economy and so on.The results show that:1.International transfer of service industry will not lead to the occurrence of cost disease in China's service industry.2.The impact of international transfer of service industry on Chinese service industry is as follows:The lag of labor productivity in China's service industry has begun to narrow.Employment in China's service sector rose.The income elasticity and price elasticity of China's service industry tend to decrease.In the long run, the share of China's service industry in GDP rises with rising income levels.
【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F719

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