PPP模式下养老机构建设项目风险承担研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 13:36

本文选题：PPP模式 + 养老机构　；参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会不断发展,人口老龄化这一问题的严峻性日益凸显,仅靠政府的财政力量将难以满足养老机构的投资需求,这就为社会资本参与到养老机构的建设提供了良好的契机,同时将PPP模式引入养老机构这一建设方式也逐步受到关注与重视。由于养老机构项目的投资回收期较长,采用PPP模式将在建设及运营过程中面临较多的风险因素,从而导致项目收益充满不确定性,而社会资本又十分关注项目的经济效益,因此为了提高其参与项目的能动性和积极性,有必要对PPP模式下养老机构的风险承担问题进行深入的研究。首先阐述了PPP模式引入我国养老机构领域的运作模式。随后从政治风险、不可抗力风险、经济风险、法律风险、市场需求变化五个方面识别系统风险;用WBS-RBS识别非系统风险,系统风险和非系统风险共识别出25个风险因素。通过问卷调查分析各风险因素的发生概率和损害程度,计算风险因素对项目综合影响程度,进而得到各风险的贡献度,为风险分担问题提供了主次参考。其次从公共部门和私营部门两个方面分析项目的风险承担主体,将风险承担的模式分为单一承担主体和由公私双方共担。根据风险控制理论,运用德尔菲法,对单一承担主体的风险进行分配,得到各风险的承担主体。然后在已有PPP项目风险分担博弈分析的基础上,考虑公私双方的非对称地位,采用讨价还价模型对谈判过程进行研究,假设公共部门和私营部门对风险的态度都是厌恶的,选取谈判成本系数和私营部门风险转移份额作为参数,确定公私双方的风险分担比例,求出风险承担系数。基于投资比例和风险承担系数,提出公私双方的利益分配方法。最后论文以K市某养老机构项目进行实证分析。在PPP合同的设计与谈判中,风险承担方式将会直接影响项目的成败。本文旨在将风险进行合理分担,满足各参与方利益,对我国PPP模式下养老机构项目的实施提供理论参考。
[Abstract]:With the development of society, the problem of aging population is becoming more and more serious. It will be difficult to meet the investment needs of pension institutions by relying on the financial strength of the government alone, which provides a good opportunity for social capital to participate in the construction of pension institutions. At the same time, the introduction of PPP model into pension institutions has gradually attracted attention and attention. Because of the long payback period of the pension institution project, the PPP model will face more risk factors in the process of construction and operation, which leads to the uncertainty of the project income, and the social capital pays close attention to the economic benefit of the project. Therefore, in order to improve their initiative and enthusiasm to participate in the project, it is necessary to carry out in-depth research on the risk bearing of pension institutions under the PPP model. First of all, this paper expounds the operation mode of introducing PPP mode into the field of pension institutions in China. Then the system risk is identified from five aspects: political risk, force majeure risk, economic risk, legal risk and market demand change, and 25 risk factors are identified by using WBS-RBS to identify non-system risk, system risk and non-system risk. The probability and damage degree of each risk factor are analyzed by questionnaire, the comprehensive influence degree of risk factor on the project is calculated, and the contribution degree of each risk is obtained, which provides the primary and secondary reference for the risk sharing problem. Secondly, it analyzes the risk bearing subject of the project from two aspects of the public sector and the private sector, and divides the risk bearing model into a single undertaking subject and a public and private co-bearing model. According to the theory of risk control, using Delphi method, the risk of a single subject is allocated and the subject of each risk is obtained. Then on the basis of the PPP project risk sharing game analysis, considering the asymmetric position of both public and private, the bargaining model is used to study the negotiation process, assuming that both the public and private sectors are averse to risk. The negotiation cost coefficient and the private sector risk transfer share are selected as parameters to determine the risk sharing ratio between public and private parties and to find out the risk bearing coefficient. Based on the investment ratio and risk-bearing coefficient, the method of benefit distribution between public and private parties is put forward. Finally, the paper carries on the empirical analysis with a pension institution project in K city. In the design and negotiation of PPP contract, the way of risk bearing will directly affect the success or failure of the project. The purpose of this paper is to share the risk reasonably, to satisfy the interests of all the participants, and to provide a theoretical reference for the implementation of pension institution projects under the PPP mode in our country.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;D669.6;F719

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