生产性服务业能成为中国经济高质量增长新动能吗

发布时间：2018-04-30 00:32

本文选题：生产性服务业 + 增长核算　；参考：《中国工业经济》2017年12期

【摘要】：近年来中国服务业规模不断增大,在国民经济中的份额已经超过50%,其中生产性服务业比重接近1/3。随着中国步入工业化后期阶段,服务业以及生产性服务业比重仍会继续提高。因此,在中国经济发展进入新常态后,作为国民经济主体的服务业发展能否支撑中国经济中高速增长备受关注。本文拟从经济增长的动力机制出发,通过对全要素生产率增长率(TFP指数)的测算与分解,探索生产性服务业的部门技术进步与产业结构转换对全要素生产率乃至宏观经济增长的影响程度,从而试图找到生产性服务业可以作为未来中国经济增长新动能的证据。结果显示:生产性服务业较高的技术进步水平以及对资本要素和劳动要素较强的集聚能力,可以提升宏观经济总体全要素生产率,进而推动中国经济的可持续和高质量增长,完全可以成为新常态下中国经济高质量增长的新动能。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of China's service industry has been increasing, and its share in the national economy has exceeded 50%, of which the proportion of producer services is close to one-third. As China enters the late stage of industrialization, the proportion of service and producer services will continue to increase. Therefore, after China's economic development enters the new normal, whether the service industry, as the main body of the national economy, can support the rapid growth of China's economy has attracted much attention. Based on the dynamic mechanism of economic growth, this paper intends to calculate and decompose the TFP index by means of the total factor productivity growth rate (TFP). In order to find out the evidence that producer services can be regarded as the new kinetic energy of China's economic growth, this paper explores the influence of the technological progress of producer services and the transformation of industrial structure on the total factor productivity and even macroeconomic growth. The results show that the higher level of technological progress and the stronger agglomeration ability of capital and labor factors in producer services can enhance the overall total factor productivity of the macro economy and promote the sustainable and high quality growth of the Chinese economy. It can become the new momentum of high-quality growth of Chinese economy under the new normal.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;苏宁金融研究院宏观经济研究中心;中国社会科学院工业经济研究所;
【基金】：中国社会科学院创新工程项目“创新驱动发展的分析与测算”(批准号10620161001005) 国家软科学面上项目“产业结构转换、技术创新与中国经济增长潜力提升”(批准号2014GXS4B073)
【分类号】：F124;F719

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