中国生产性服务业的发展及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 07:24

本文选题：生产性服务业 + Panel　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：近十几年来,全球产业结构发生了重大变化。服务业蓬勃发展,逐渐成为各国国民经济的主导产业。在服务业内部,生产性服务业具有突出的地位,其发展引起了众多关注。改革开放以来,我国经济依靠资源投入和出口需求驱动的粗放型增长取得了举世瞩目的成就,同时也付出了资源大量消耗、污染日趋严重的代价。为了保证经济的可持续发展,必须实现向技术进步和效率提高驱动的集约型增长的转型。转型期的重要内容就是服务业尤其是生产性服务业的发展。发展生产性服务业对于提升产业竞争力、优化经济结构、降低社会成本、提高经济效率具有重要的作用。大力发展服务业特别是生产性服务业已经成为我国各级政府的共识。目前我国生产性服务业的比重较小,而且区域间差异较大。因此研究生产性服务业发展的规律具有重要意义。要促进生产性服务业发展,必须营造良好的制度环境。首先需要了解我国生产性服务业发展的现状如何,发展处于什么阶段,发展的趋势是什么,有哪些因素影响其发展。本文从上述几个方面进行了研究,旨在为我国生产性服务业的发展提供有价值的参考意见。本文的主要研究工作和结论如下：一、从总量、结构、效率和产业关联四个角度对我国生产性服务业目前的发展状况进行了详细的分析。从产出情况看,虽然生产性服务业名义增加值增长较快,但是实际产出增长缓慢。生产性服务业的固定资产投资占服务业总投资的2/3左右,而产出和就业只占1/3左右。在生产性服务业内部,交通运输业的增加值比重和就业比重都是最大的。在全社会固定资产投资方面,房地产业投资占据了生产性服务业总投资的60%以上。相对劳动生产率分析表明,不管是以服务业为整体还是以国民经济为整体,生产性服务业各分行业的相对劳动生产率都大于1,说明生产性服务业的生产率相对于服务业以及国民经济其他行业来说,超出了平均水平。产业关联分析显示,我国制造业的中间投入中直接来自生产性服务业的并不占多数,说明我国生产性服务业并未有效地发挥为制造业提供服务的作用。二、从理论上探索了推动生产性服务业产生和发展的内因和外因,提出生产性服务业的发展阶段理论。以交通运输业、金融业和房地产业作为生产性服务业的代表,考察了我国各省区生产性服务业的发展水平,然后划分区域,结合各行业在各区域的发展现状,对其目前的发展阶段进行初步界定。建立Panel Data模型,分析了投资和就业对行业发展的影响,以验证行业发展阶段的判定结论。研究认为：交通运输业在东部和中部处于发展期,在西部处于萌芽期；金融业在东部处于发展期,中部和西部处于萌芽期；房地产业在东部进入成熟期,在中部和西部处于发展期。三、结合微观经济理论,从劳动需求和劳动供给的角度分析了技术水平、人力资本、工资水平、产出水平和城市化水平对生产性服务业就业的影响。利用Panel Data模型对生产性服务业就业的影响因素进行实证检验。检验结果表明,经济发展水平和城市化水平的提高可以促进生产性服务业就业,生产性服务业上期产出对当期就业具有正向的影响,而人力资本水平和工资水平对生产性服务业就业具有负向影响。四、利用Engle和Granger两步法建立长期均衡模型和误差修正模型,对生产性服务业在我国东部、中部和西部的产出的影响因素分别建立模型进行分析。考察的影响因素为制造业规模、固定资产投资、就业水平、区域经济水平和城市化水平。分析表明,东部的区域经济水平和城市化水平在长期和短期都对生产性服务业发展起到了促进作用,而制造业在长期对生产性服务业产生负向影响。中部地区城市化水平在长期和短期对生产性服务业的影响都为负值。西部各因素的长期影响除了制造业为负以外,其他都为正；短期中制造业和投资的影响显著为正,城市化影响显著为负。五、利用空间经济学的集聚指标衡量了我国生产性服务业总体和各分行业的集聚状况,辨析每一行业的优势地区和各地区的优势产业。各行业集聚水平比较而言,交通运输业和金融业的集聚水平较低,房地产业、信息服务业、商务服务业和科技服务业的集聚水平略高。从集聚的发展趋势来看,生产性服务业各行业的集聚水平基本上都是逐年上升的。另外,从向心力和离心力两个角度对产业集聚的影响因素进行了分析,提出理论假说,然后利用Panel Data模型对假说进行实证检验。检验结果表明：目前我国的制造业份额、创新密度、外向度、地理位置和失业率都是生产性服务业集聚的向心力,而路网密度是离心力。六、将我国生产性服务业的发展状况与美国、日本、德国、法国、英国五个发达国家和巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非四个金砖国家进行了比较分析。与发达国家相比,我国生产性服务业的产值比重和就业比重基本上都占其水平的一半,差距主要在房地产业。在发展趋势上,我国生产性服务业产值占增加值的比重近十几年来不升反降,这一趋势与五个发达国家相反,但是与巴西、俄罗斯、南非等金砖国家相似。与金砖国家的比较分析可知,我国生产性服务业在发展阶段相似的国家中并不落后。
[Abstract]:In the last decade , the global industrial structure has changed greatly . The service industry has been booming , gradually becoming the leading industry of national economy . In the service industry , the productive service industry has become the dominant industry . In order to ensure the sustainable development of economy , the important content of the transformation is the development of the service industry , especially the productive service industry .

In order to promote the development of productive service industry , it is necessary to create a good system environment . First , we need to know the present situation of the development of productive service industry in China , what kind of development trend is , what factors influence its development . In this paper , we have carried out the research from the above aspects , aiming at providing valuable reference for the development of productive service industry in China . The main research work and conclusion are as follows :

This paper analyzes the present situation of productive service industry from four angles , such as total quantity , structure , efficiency and industry . From the perspective of output , the real output growth is slow . The investment of fixed assets in productive service industry accounts for about 2 / 3 of the total investment of the service industry . The relative labor productivity analysis shows that the productivity of the productive service industry is more than the average of the service industry and the other industries of the national economy .

Based on the theory , the paper explores the internal and external factors that promote the production and development of productive service industry , and puts forward the developing stage theory of productive service industry .
The financial industry is in the development stage in the east , the middle part and the west are in the germination period ;
The real estate industry enters the mature period in the east , and is in the development period in the middle and west .

Based on the micro - economic theory , the influence of technology level , human capital , salary level , output level and urbanization level on the employment of productive service industry is analyzed from the angle of labor demand and labor supply . The results show that the improvement of economic development level and urbanization level can promote the employment of productive service industry .

The results show that the regional economic level and urbanization level play a positive role in the development of productive service industry in both the long term and the short term .
The impact of manufacturing and investment in the short - term is obviously positive , and the effect of urbanization is negative .

5 . The agglomeration of productive service industry in China is measured by means of the cluster index of space economics , and the advantages of each industry and the dominant industries in each region are analyzed . The influence factors of the industry agglomeration are analyzed by means of two angles : centripetal force and centrifugal force . The results show that the market share , innovation density , extroversion , geographical location and unemployment rate are the centripetal force of productive service industry , and the density of road network is centrifugal force .

6 . The development of productive service industry in China is compared with that of the USA , Japan , Germany , France , the five developed countries of the United States and Brazil , Russia , India and South Africa . Compared with the developed countries , the proportion of the output value and the employment proportion of the productive service industry in China are basically half of their level , the gap is mainly in the real estate industry . In the developing trend , China ' s productive service industry value is similar to those of the five developed countries . However , compared with those in Brazil , Russia and South Africa , China ' s productive service industry is not backward in the similar countries in the development stage .

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F719

【参考文献】