广西服务业发展及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 01:41

本文选题：服务业 + 投入产出模型　；参考：《广西师范大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来广西服务业有了较快的发展,特别是“八五”、“九五”时期。首先从劳动力结构方面看,上世纪80年代初期广西劳动力就业结构已开始发生了明显的变化,1980-1999年农业就业人口数量虽然增长了300多万,但比重却由83%降至77%,90年代以来农业劳动力不仅比例下降,数量也开始减少,到1994年比例降至68%,数量减少了25万人。通过调查研究发现农业劳动力主要流向了服务业领域。90年代初期到中期,在三次产业中服务业劳动力增长幅度最大,由288万人增长到479万人,增幅达到了60%以上,占就业人口比重由13.7%上升到20.5%,增长近7个百分点；工业劳动力比重仅由9.8%上升至11.5%,增加了1.7个百分点。由此可见,服务业劳动力增幅远远高于工业。到2010年广西服务业劳动力已占就业人员的38%,几乎与全国水平相当。当前和今后一个时期,广西将进入跨越发展新阶段。面临重大发展机遇。和平、发展、合作仍是时代潮流,经济全球化和区域经济一体化深入发展,科技创新加快并孕育新突破,国际分工格局调整中蕴藏着新机遇,国际环境总体有利。我国发展仍处于可以大有作为的重要战略机遇期,经济结构转型加快,区域协调发展总体战略进一步完善,社会大局保持稳定,广西发展面临良好的国内宏观环境。中国-东盟自由贸易区全面建成,西部大开发深入推进,对广西加快将区位优势、资源优势和生态优势转化为竞争优势创造了极为有利的条件,拓展了更为广阔的发展空间。面对发展呈现出新的阶段性特征,经济社会加快转型,工业化跨入中期阶段,城镇化快速推进,居民消费逐步向发展型升级,发展潜力巨大,广西完全有条件在新的起点上实现新跨越。本论文研究的对象为广西服务业的发展,论文以服务业的发展为研究主线,分析广西服务业整体发展的现状以及服务业自身内部结构的发展特征;在借鉴国内外特别是国内服务经济理论的基础上,运用最新统计数据,分析广西服务业在国民经济中的地位,服务业同其他产业的联系以及服务业内部各行业之间的联系,从理论上探讨广西服务业发展现象背后的原因,有利于从深层次上揭示广西服务业发展的内在规律,研究具有一定的理论价值。本文在2002年、2007年广西投入产出表的基础之上,通过建立以服务业为产业部门的新的广西服务业投入产出表,并利用服务业投入产出表建立投入产出模型,从服务业的产业关联和产业波及效应方面进行了阐述研究,主要依据服务业直接和间接消耗系数、影响力与影响力系数、感应度与感应度系数以及服务业行业总产出等指标对服务业及其内部各行业在国民经济体系中的作用和地位进行分析,初步分析广西服务业的一些行业经济结构的特性。并在结合投入产出分析的基础上总结出影响广西服务业发展的影响因素,包括经济发展水平、工业发展水平、交通运输及仓储业和金融业,服务业作为国民经济的产业部门,与国民经济其他产业存在着紧密的联系,正确认识服务的产业关联和波及效果是制定服务业发展对策的基础,有利于服务业的可持续发展。在理论分析框架下提出研究假说及构建计量模型,然后运用VAR模型对影响广西服务业发展的影响因素进行实证研究,得出以下结论：广西服务业的发展与经济增长存在较强的相关关系。尽管各自的增长是非稳定的,但从长期看,它们之间却构成了长期的均衡关系,只是这种均衡关系对当期非均衡误差调整的自身修正能力不强。在短期内,服务业的发展对经济增长的变动影响显著；Granger因果关系分析表明：服务业发展是经济发展的Granger原因,而经济发展水平却不是服务业发展变化的Granger原因；协整检验和误差修正模型表明,广西服务业和各个影响因素之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。在短期内它们之间会出现失衡,但是当出现失衡时系统会自动进行调整使其重新回到均衡状态。说明从整体上看它们之间的发展是协调的健康的;由脉冲响应函数和方差分解可知,广西的服务业与各个影响因素之间又是相互影响、相互作用的。其中,经济发展水平对服务业的影响最大,超过了经济发展水平对自身的影响。金融业对服务业的影响和交通运输仓储邮政业对服务业的影响都高于对自身的影响。
[Abstract]:The employment structure of Guangxi has changed rapidly since the reform and opening up , especially in the period of " Eighth Five - Year Plan " and " Ninth Five - Year Plan " . In the early 1980s , the labor employment structure of Guangxi has changed obviously , but the proportion of agricultural labor force decreased from 83 % to 77 % in the early 1980s .
The proportion of industrial labour force rose from 9.8 % to 11.5 % , an increase of 1.7 percentage points . From this it was seen that the labour force in the service sector was much higher than that of the industry . By 2010 , the labor force in the service industry was 38 % of the workforce , almost comparable to the national level .

At present and in the coming period , Guangxi will enter the new stage of spanning development . Facing the great development opportunities , the development of peace , development and cooperation is still the trend of the times , economic globalization and regional economic integration in - depth development , scientific and technological innovation accelerates and develops new breakthroughs , the international division of labor is accelerated , the overall strategy of regional coordination development is further improved , and the development of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area is still in a favorable domestic macro - environment . The development of China - ASEAN Free Trade Area is still in an important strategic opportunity .

This thesis focuses on the development of the service industry in Guangxi . The paper focuses on the development of service industry as the main line , analyzes the present situation of the whole development of the service industry in Guangxi and the development characteristics of the internal structure of the service industry . Based on the domestic and foreign countries , especially the domestic service economy theory , the paper analyzes the reasons behind the development of the service industry in Guangxi , and helps to reveal the internal law of the development of the service industry from the deep level .

Based on the input - output table of Guangxi in 2002 and 2007 , this paper analyzes the role and position of the service industry and its internal industries in the national economy system through the establishment of a new input - output table of service industry in Guangxi .

In the framework of the theory analysis , it is proposed to study the hypothesis and build the measurement model , and then use the VAR model to study the factors that affect the development of the service industry in Guangxi .
The causality analysis shows that the development of service industry is the causality of economic development , but the level of economic development is not the causality of the change of service industry .
The co - integration test and error correction model show that there is a long - term stable equilibrium relationship between the service industry and the influencing factors in Guangxi . In the short term , there will be an imbalance between them , but when the imbalance occurs , the system will automatically adjust to return to the equilibrium state .

【学位授予单位】：广西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F719

【参考文献】