服务贸易对中国服务业就业的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 03:27

本文选题：服务贸易 + 服务业就业　；参考：《湖南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今世界，服务贸易蓬勃发展，服务业逐渐替代工、农业成为吸收劳动力就业的支柱产业，在许多发达国家，服务业就业占全部就业的比重接近80%，而中国到2010年为止，这一比重仅为34.6%，与发达国家存在巨大的差距。我国服务业就业在经历高速增长之后，近年来对就业的吸纳能力有所下降，如果服务业不能形成新的服务需求，那么服务业进一步扩大就业的能力将会受到限制。基于此现状，本文分别从理论和实证的角度对我国服务贸易的就业效应进行了分析。本文基于传统国际贸易理论和生产函数分别对我国服务贸易就业效应进行了基础理论分析，在此基础上，对服务贸易就业效应的机理进行了初步探析，结果表明：服务贸易出口有利于扩大我国服务业就业；服务贸易进口对我国服务业就业的影响存在不确定性，需要经过实证分析进行进一步论证；服务贸易对服务业就业既存在直接效应也存在间接效应。我国服务贸易以及服务业就业的现状描述显示，服务贸易与我国服务业就业总体变化趋势是一样的，都基本呈现稳步增长的趋势，但服务业就业的增长速度远低于服务贸易的增长速度；二者的行业分布存在一定相似性，都是以传统劳动密集型服务业为主，现代服务业比重逐步提升；服务贸易和服务业就业的主要比重都集中在东部地区，且服务贸易的地区差异更加大。接下来，利用省际面板数据对我国服务贸易就业效应进行了FGLS估计，，结论如下：服务贸易出口对我国服务业就业具有促进作用，且该作用大小存在地区差异，西部地区促进作用最为明显，东部地区次之，中部地区呈现反作用；服务贸易进口的就业效应为负，并且服务贸易越发达的地区，负作用就越小。根据前文各部分分析所得出的结论，提出相对应的政策建议：加强服务业就业的发展基础；充分发挥服务贸易对服务业就业的带动效应。
[Abstract]:In today's world, trade in services is booming, service industries are gradually replacing workers, and agriculture has become a pillar industry in absorbing labor force employment. In many developed countries, the proportion of service employment in total employment is close to 80%, while in China until 2010, the proportion of service employment in total employment is close to 80%. This proportion is only 34. 6%, and there is a huge gap with the developed countries. After the rapid growth of employment in China's service industry, the absorptive capacity of employment has declined in recent years. If the service industry can not form new service demand, the ability of service industry to further expand employment will be restricted. Based on the present situation, this paper analyzes the employment effect of China's service trade from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Based on the traditional international trade theory and production function, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the employment effect of China's service trade. On this basis, the mechanism of employment effect of service trade is preliminarily analyzed. The results show that the export of service trade is beneficial to the expansion of service employment in China, and the influence of service trade import on employment in service industry is uncertain. The service trade has both direct and indirect effects on the employment of service industry. The service trade is the same as our country service industry employment overall change trend, both basically present the steady growth trend, but the service industry employment growth speed is far lower than the service trade growth speed, the two industry distribution has the certain similarity, They are mainly traditional labor-intensive services, and the proportion of modern services is gradually increasing. The major proportions of service trade and service employment are concentrated in the eastern region, and the regional differences in service trade are even greater. Next, The FGLS estimation of employment effect of China's service trade is made by using inter-provincial panel data. The conclusions are as follows: the export of service trade can promote the employment of service industry in China, and there are regional differences in this effect. The promotion effect in the western region is the most obvious, followed by the eastern region and the central region. The employment effect of the import of service trade is negative, and the more developed the service trade is, According to the conclusions of the above analysis, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward: strengthening the development foundation of service employment and giving full play to the driving effect of service trade on service employment.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.68;F719;F249.21

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