中国地区城市化与现代服务业发展特点及互动关系分析

发布时间：2018-07-20 11:45

【摘要】：2011年以来,服务业超过工业成为国内生产总值的主要组成部分,成为了城市化后期发展的主要推动力,现代服务业作为服务业中最具生产力的行业受到了广泛关注,因此研究城市化和现代服务业间的作用关系对增强城市综合实力、促进城市化和现代服务业的协调发展具有重要意义。以1995-2011年全国31个省市城市化和现代服务业综合发展水平为基础,探究两者间的作用关系,首先在界定城市化和现代服务业发展内涵的基础上,建立城市化和现代服务业评价指标体系,多角度、全面的测度地区城市化和现代服务业发展水平；其次以31个省市城市化和现代服务业的发展特点为依据,采用面板数据聚类方法,分别对其进行分类,据此分析每类地区城市化和现代服务业的地域发展特点；最后以城市化聚类结果为依据,通过脉冲响应分析,分地区研究城市化和现代服务业的相互作用关系。实证结果表明：(1)城市化和现代服务业均存在明显的地区发展差异,且呈现先增大后减小的发展趋势。北京和上海的发展优势明显,拉高了全国平均水平,从而致使全国将近三分之二的省市处于全国平均水平以下。(2)城市化和现代服务业的聚类结果基本一致,北京和上海归为一类,中南部和东部沿海地区归为一类,西南和东北地区归为一类,海南和西藏归为一类。北京和上海综合城市化和现代服务业水平最高,但人均绿化情况和人均居住情况拉低了其城市化综合水平,且现代服务业相对收入水平低；第二类地区绿化和居住状况较好,具有较大的现代服务业发展潜力；第三类地区城市化发展潜力大,服务水平较高,但城市化和现代服务业的综合水平低；第四类地区城市化综合因子得分较低,但其产业因子、景观因子和发展潜力较大。(3)城市化和现代服务业相互影响,共同促进,三类地区的城市化和现代服务业均存在长期的均衡关系,因而城市化和现代服务业间的相互作用关系是普遍性而非地区性的。(4)三类地区城市化和现代服务业的相互作用程度不同：第一类地区现代服务业随着城市化的波动而负向变动,且呈先变大后减小的趋势,第二类地区呈正向变动,也呈现先变大后减小趋势,第三类地区现代服务业对城市化的波动响应不大,仅在原有水平上下波动；第一类地区城市化受现代服务业波动的影响较大,第二类地区城市化受现代服务业的影响程度在三类地区中最低,但其对城市化影响的持续期较长,第三类地区现代服务业对城市化的带动作用明显,但其对城市化的当期影响较大,影响持续期较短。本文的创新点包括以下三个方面：(1)扩展了研究主体的内涵。根据城市化和现代服务业的时代要求,进一步扩充其内涵,并建立了相应的评价指标体系,更加准确、全面的评价城市化和现代服务业发展水平,避免了单指标评价的片面性。(2)研究视角独特。现有文献大多根据地域划分标准,研究东中西部城市化和现代服务业发展水平,没有充分考虑其自身发展特点,本文在综合评价全国31个省区城市化和现代服务业发展水平的基础上,根据地区发展特点分别对其进行聚类,然后研究不同类别内两者间的作用情况,避免了地区的被动分类,利于研究城市化和现代服务业的地域分布特点。(3)研究方法较新。城市化和现代服务业的聚类均属于指标、时间和个体的三维聚类,三维数据的聚类比较复杂,国内现有研究相对较少,本文通过SAS编程对其进行聚类,实现了方法引用的创新。本文的不足之处：虽然根据服务业的发展特点和内涵对其进行了界定,但由于本文界定的现代服务业范围与现有统计口径不完全相符,数据获得存在很大困难,因此本文只能扩大现代服务业的统计口径,对现代服务业的发展水平做大致估计,无法得到与本文定义相符的现代服务业的精确测度值。
[Abstract]:Since 2011, the service industry has become the main component of the gross domestic product, and it has become the main driving force for the later development of the urbanization. As the most productive industry in the service industry, the modern service industry has received extensive attention. Therefore, the study of the relationship between urbanization and the modern service industry is to strengthen the comprehensive strength of the city and promote the overall strength of the city. The coordinated development of urban urbanization and modern service industry is of great significance. Based on the urbanization of 31 provinces and cities and the comprehensive development level of modern service industry in 1995-2011 years, the relationship between the urbanization and modern service industry is explored. First, on the basis of defining the connotation of urbanization and modern service industry, the evaluation index body of urbanization and modern service industry is established. System, multi angle, comprehensive measure of regional urbanization and the development level of modern service industry. Secondly, based on the development characteristics of urbanization and modern service industry in 31 provinces and cities, the panel data clustering method is used to classify them respectively. Accordingly, the regional development characteristics of urbanization and present generation service industry in each category are analyzed. Finally, urbanization is made. Based on the clustering results, the interaction relationship between urbanization and modern service industry is studied by impulse response analysis.
The empirical results show that: (1) there is obvious regional development difference between urbanization and modern service industry, and the development trend is increasing first and then decreasing. The development advantages of Beijing and Shanghai are obvious, and the national average level is higher, which leads to nearly 2/3 provinces and cities in the country below the national average level. (2) urbanization and modern service. The results of the cluster are basically the same, Beijing and Shanghai belong to one class, the South and the eastern coastal areas belong to one category, the southwest and the Northeast are classified into one category, Hainan and Tibet belong to one category. The comprehensive urbanization of Beijing and Shanghai and the modern service industry are the highest, but the per capita greening situation and the per capita living conditions have lower their urbanized comprehensive water. And the relative income level of the modern service industry is low; the second types of areas have better afforestation and living conditions, and have great potential for the development of modern service industry; the third types of areas have great potential for urbanization and higher service level, but the comprehensive level of urbanization and modern service industry is low; the scores of urbanization comprehensive factors in the fourth types of regions are low, but their level of urbanization is low. Industrial factors, landscape factors and development potential are large. (3) the urbanization and modern service industry interact with each other and promote each other. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and modern service industry in the three types of areas. Therefore, the interaction relationship between urbanization and modern service industry is universal rather than regional. (4) the urbanization and the modern of the three types of areas are urbanized and modern. The interaction degree of the service industry is different: the modern service industry in the first kind of area changes with the fluctuation of urbanization, and the trend of the first change and then decrease. The second types of regions show a positive change, and then appear first and then decrease, and the modern service industry in the third kind of region has little response to the fluctuation of urbanization, only in the original level and the lower wave. The urbanization of the first kind of regional urbanization is greatly influenced by the fluctuation of modern service industry. The degree of urbanization affected by modern service industry in the second kind of regions is the lowest in the three category, but the duration of its impact on urbanization is longer, and the modern service industry in the third kinds of regions has obvious action on urbanization, but it has a great influence on the current period of urbanization. The duration of the impact is shorter.
The innovation points of this paper include the following three aspects: (1) expanding the connotation of the research subject. According to the times requirements of urbanization and modern service industry, we further expand its connotation and establish the corresponding evaluation index system, more accurately and comprehensively evaluate the development level of urbanization and modern service industry, and avoid the one-sided nature of the single index evaluation. 2) the research perspective is unique. Most of the existing documents are based on regional division standards, study the development level of urbanization and modern service industry in East and West, do not fully consider the characteristics of their own development. On the basis of comprehensive evaluation of the urbanization and the development level of modern service industry in the 31 provinces and regions of the country, this paper is based on the characteristics of regional development. Class, and then study the role of the two in different categories, avoid the passive classification of the region, and help to study the regional distribution characteristics of urbanization and modern service industry. (3) the research method is more new. The clustering of urbanization and modern service industry belong to index, time and individual three dimensional clustering, the clustering of three-dimensional data is more complex and domestic existing The research is relatively few. This paper uses SAS programming to cluster, and achieves the innovation of method reference.
The shortcomings of this paper are: although it is defined according to the characteristics and connotation of the service industry, because the scope of the modern service industry is not completely consistent with the existing statistics, the data acquisition is very difficult. Therefore, this paper can only expand the calibre of the modern service industry and expand the development level of the modern service industry. It is estimated that the precise measurement value of modern service industry that is consistent with the definition can not be obtained.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F719;F299.2

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