区域市场开放与地区服务业增长——基于省级面板数据的动态分析

发布时间：2018-09-09 13:39

【摘要】：本文采用主成分分析法测算了20世纪90年代中国区际市场开放度指数,发现我国区域间开放程度极不平衡,中西部地区开放度明显偏低。在此基础上,利用1993~2010年的省级面板数据,采用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)和系统动态面板(GMM)实证考察了省际开放程度对地区服务业增长的影响机制和影响效果。研究结果发现:区际开放与服务业增长之间存在U型曲线关系,即短期内区际开放程度的提高对服务业增长没有起到积极作用,但随着区际开放程度的不断提高,其对服务业增长的作用将由负转为正;对外开放与区际开放之间存在显著的互补关系,即对外开放水平的提高有助于促进区域间的开放,从而推动地区服务业增长;中国加入WTO尤其是履行对WTO的各项承诺,不仅对区域层面的对外开放起了积极作用,而且对区域之间的开放起到了一定的推动作用。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the index of inter-regional market openness in China in 1990s is calculated by principal component analysis. It is found that the degree of inter-regional opening is extremely unbalanced, and the openness of central and western regions is obviously low. On this basis, using the provincial panel data from 1993-2010, using the tool variable two-stage least square method (2SLS) and the system dynamic panel (GMM), the paper empirically investigates the influence mechanism and effect of the provincial opening degree on the regional service industry growth. The results show that there is a U-curve relationship between inter-regional opening and service industry growth, that is, the improvement of inter-regional openness does not play a positive role in the growth of service industry in the short term, but with the increasing of inter-regional opening degree, Its effect on the growth of service industry will change from negative to positive, and there is a significant complementary relationship between opening to the outside world and interregional opening, that is, the improvement of the level of opening to the outside world will help to promote the opening up among regions and thus promote the growth of regional service industry. China's entry into WTO, especially the implementation of its commitments to WTO, not only plays a positive role in opening up to the outside world at the regional level, but also promotes the opening up among regions.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“中国结构性减税的方向、效应与对策研究”(项目编号:12ZD053);国家社科基金青年项目“新型城镇化背景下扩大服务消费制度联动研究”(项目编号:13CJL046) 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院创新工程项目“中国中长期服务经济发展战略研究”
【分类号】：F125;F719

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