基于贝叶斯网络的智慧养老项目PFI模式风险研究
发布时间：2018-09-11 15:43
【摘要】：在现代科技整合快速发展的形势下,智慧养老模式的探索可以弥补传统养老模式的不足。引入先进的PFI模式提供智慧养老服务可以满足智慧养老项目对于资金及运营模式的要求,但由于PFI模式的开放性、多元化以及智慧养老项目的投资大、资金回收周期长等特点,该项目面临的风险较高。本文从企业管理的角度,以项目全寿命周期为阶段划分,识别智慧养老项目PFI风险因素,通过建立贝叶斯网络风险分析模型,运用先验概率和后验概率,甄别风险管理的主要因素是智慧养老项目PFI模式运营成功的关键,根据主要风险因素提出相应对策。
[Abstract]:Under the situation of rapid development of modern science and technology integration, the exploration of intelligent pension model can make up for the deficiency of traditional pension model. The introduction of advanced PFI model to provide intelligent pension services can meet the requirements of intelligent pension projects for capital and operation mode. However, due to the openness of PFI mode, diversification and the large investment of intelligent pension projects, the recovery period of funds is long, and so on. The project faces higher risks. From the point of view of enterprise management, this paper divides the whole life cycle of the project into stages, identifies the PFI risk factors of the intelligent pension project, establishes the Bayesian network risk analysis model, and applies the prior probability and the posteriori probability. The main factors of screening risk management are the key to the successful operation of the intelligent pension project PFI mode, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward according to the main risk factors.
【作者单位】： 西安建筑科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：陕西省教育厅哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目“陕西省建筑企业国际竞争力评价及国际化发展战略研究”(项目编号:14JZ022)阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D669.6;F719
本文编号：2237122
[Abstract]:Under the situation of rapid development of modern science and technology integration, the exploration of intelligent pension model can make up for the deficiency of traditional pension model. The introduction of advanced PFI model to provide intelligent pension services can meet the requirements of intelligent pension projects for capital and operation mode. However, due to the openness of PFI mode, diversification and the large investment of intelligent pension projects, the recovery period of funds is long, and so on. The project faces higher risks. From the point of view of enterprise management, this paper divides the whole life cycle of the project into stages, identifies the PFI risk factors of the intelligent pension project, establishes the Bayesian network risk analysis model, and applies the prior probability and the posteriori probability. The main factors of screening risk management are the key to the successful operation of the intelligent pension project PFI mode, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward according to the main risk factors.
【作者单位】： 西安建筑科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：陕西省教育厅哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目“陕西省建筑企业国际竞争力评价及国际化发展战略研究”(项目编号:14JZ022)阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：D669.6;F719
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