吉林省服务业的产业关联及其对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-11-01 13:38

【摘要】：服务业是国民经济的重要组成部分。服务业发展水平是社会经济发达程度的重要标志。“十二五”时期我国服务业发展面临着前所未有的机遇，也面对着一定的挑战，不过从全局上看，这将是改革开放以来发展环境最好的时期，，是服务业可能实现跨越式发展的时期，我国正在加速向服务经济时代迈进。加快发展服务业，提高服务业在三大产业结构中的比重，是推进经济结构调整、转变经济增长方式的重要途径。加快服务业发展能够拓宽城乡新增就业渠道，更好地满足人们物质文化生活的需要。为了贯彻《国务院关于加快发展服务业的若干意见》（国发[2007]7号），吉林省政府出台了《关于推进服务业跨越发展的决定》（吉发[2007]10号），近些年来各级领导又对服务业的发展给予了高度的重视。因此，对吉林省服务业的研究，尤其是对吉林省服务业的产业关联及其对经济增长影响的研究，对促进吉林省服务业跨越式发展，全面提升吉林省服务业发展水平和综合实力，从而促进整个国民经济的发展有一定的实际意义。本文采用理论研究和实证研究相结合的方法。首先介绍了服务业相关理论，包括服务业的涵义及分类、服务业发展阶段理论、服务业发展与经济增长关系的理论。然后运用投入产出模型，利用2002年以及2007年吉林省投入产出表，对吉林省服务业及其细分行业的产业关联与产业波及效应进行了动态对比分析。最后利用计量分析方法，采用单位根检验、协整检验以及Granger因果检验等几种方法对服务业发展与经济增长的关系进行了实证分析，分析结果说明：吉林省服务业对经济增长有正效应并且影响越来越明显，但是影响仍然偏小。出现这种结果主要是由于吉林省经济总体发展水平偏低、服务业产业基础薄弱以及服务业内部结构不合理等原因造成的。针对服务业发展中存在的这些问题，文章最后给出了完善服务业发展环境，优化服务业内部结构等对策建议。
[Abstract]:Service industry is an important part of national economy. The development level of service industry is an important symbol of social and economic development. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China's service industry faced unprecedented opportunities as well as certain challenges. However, from the overall perspective, this will be the best period of development environment since the reform and opening up. It is a period when the service industry may develop by leaps and bounds, and our country is speeding up to the era of service economy. Speeding up the development of the service industry and increasing the proportion of the service industry in the three industrial structures is an important way to promote the adjustment of the economic structure and to change the mode of economic growth. Speeding up the development of the service industry can widen the channels of new employment in urban and rural areas and better meet the needs of people's material and cultural life. In order to implement the opinions of the State Council on accelerating the Development of the Service Industry (Guofa [2007] 7), the Jilin Provincial Government issued the decision on promoting the Leap Development of the Service Industry (Jifa [2007] 10). In recent years, leaders at all levels have given high attention to the development of the service industry. Therefore, the research on service industry in Jilin Province, especially on the industry connection of service industry in Jilin Province and its impact on economic growth, will promote the leap-forward development of service industry in Jilin Province, and promote the development level and comprehensive strength of service industry in Jilin Province in an all-round way. Thus promoting the development of the entire national economy has certain practical significance. This paper adopts the method of combining theoretical research with empirical research. Firstly, it introduces the related theories of service industry, including the meaning and classification of service industry, the theory of service industry development stage, and the theory of relationship between service industry development and economic growth. Then, using the input-output model and the input-output table of Jilin Province in 2002 and 2007, the paper makes a dynamic comparative analysis on the industry correlation and industry ripple effect of service industry and its subdivision in Jilin Province. Finally, the relationship between service industry development and economic growth is analyzed empirically by econometric analysis, unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test. The results show that the service industry of Jilin Province has positive effect on economic growth and its influence is more and more obvious, but the influence is still small. This result is mainly due to the low level of economic development in Jilin Province, the weak industrial base of the service industry and the unreasonable internal structure of the service industry. In view of these problems in the development of the service industry, the paper finally gives some countermeasures and suggestions, such as perfecting the development environment of the service industry and optimizing the internal structure of the service industry.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F719;F127;F224

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