世界产业结构演进影响因素的南北差异及其对中国服务业发展的启示——基于20个国家1970～2010年面板数据的实证分析

发布时间：2019-03-03 13:50

【摘要】：本文利用20个国家1970～2010年的数据,构建了一组面板数据计量模型,实证检验了高等教育、城市化率、FDI净流入、国民储蓄率以及贸易开放度等因素对服务业发展的影响,并通过引入贸易和储蓄二项式,测度了发达国家和不发达国家的国民储蓄率和贸易开放度对产业结构演进的影响力临界值的差异。结果表明:高等教育、城市化率、FDI净流入对服务业发展均有显著的正向作用,过度储蓄不利于产业结构的调整,而适度的贸易开放度有助于促进服务业的发展;同时,与发达国家相比,不发达经济体可以容忍一个相对较高的外贸依存度,而储蓄率也将在一个较大的范围内对不发达国家服务业发展起到抑制作用。文章对此进行了分析,并得出了一些有益的启示。
[Abstract]:Based on the data from 20 countries in 1970 / 2010, this paper constructs a panel data metrology model, and empirically tests the influence of higher education, urbanization rate, net inflow of FDI, national savings rate and trade openness on the development of service industry. By introducing the binomial of trade and savings, this paper measures the difference of the critical value of the influence of national savings rate and trade openness between developed and underdeveloped countries on the evolution of industrial structure. The results show that higher education, urbanization rate and net inflow of FDI have a significant positive effect on the development of service industry, excessive saving is not conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure, and a moderate degree of trade openness is helpful to promote the development of service industry; At the same time, compared with the developed countries, the underdeveloped economies can tolerate a relatively high degree of dependence on foreign trade, and the savings rate will also play a restraining role in the development of the service industry in the underdeveloped countries within a larger scope. This article has carried on the analysis to this, and has obtained some beneficial enlightenments.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目《服务业总体规模、结构演进的历史趋势和内在机理研究》(项目批准号:11BJL064) 武汉大学“70后”团队项目《中国服务贸易及其国际竞争力研究》(项目批准号:105274191)的部分研究成果武汉大学自主科研项目(人文社会科学)的研究成果 “中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”资助
【分类号】：F113.1;F719;F224

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