中国城镇化进程中的序贯增长机制

发布时间：2017-12-30 17:57

本文关键词：中国城镇化进程中的序贯增长机制　出处：《暨南大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国的城市发展战略经历了从“偏向中小城市”到“城市自由竞争”再回归到“偏向中小城市”的振荡调整,有关城市发展战略的效率问题一直是学界关注的焦点。本文首先梳理了有关城市增长问题的相关文献,回顾改革开放以来中国城镇化的发展历程;之后结合中国经济发展的特征,通过构建理论模型刻画了城镇化进程中城市序贯增长的“接力赛”机制,揭示了城市发展优势随着城镇化进程从最大城市不断向规模次之的城市序贯转移的过程;在此基础上,利用中国2003-2013年“城市自由竞争”时期的城市数据对城市序贯增长的假说进行了检验;进一步地,通过测算城市最优规模的演变以及增长最快城市的平均排序,为城市序贯增长理论提供经验性证据;最后,根据得出的结论提出我国城镇化发展路径的政策建议。实证结果表明:随着样本的后推,城镇化效率与城市规模的关系从早期左低右高的“U型”结构不断扁平化,并且向“倒U型”结构反转;特大城市的城镇化优势正在不断向大城市甚至中大型城市转移。就效率的角度而言,当前新型城镇化的发展方向应该定位于城市人口250万-700万的中大型城市与大城市,以避免特大城市与小城市过度发展带来的效率损失。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's urban development strategy has experienced an oscillatory adjustment from "favouring small and medium-sized cities" to "urban free competition" and then returning to "favoring small and medium-sized cities". The efficiency of urban development strategy has always been the focus of academic attention. Firstly, this paper reviews the related literature on urban growth, and reviews the development of urbanization in China since the reform and opening up. Then combining with the characteristics of China's economic development, this paper describes the "relay race" mechanism of urban sequential growth in the process of urbanization by constructing a theoretical model. It reveals the process of urban development advantage shifting from the largest city to the second largest city with the process of urbanization. On this basis, the hypothesis of sequential urban growth is tested by using the urban data of China's "urban free competition" period from 2003 to 2013. Furthermore, the empirical evidence is provided for the theory of urban sequential growth by measuring the evolution of the optimal scale of cities and the average ranking of the fastest growing cities. Finally, according to the conclusions of the policy recommendations on the path of urbanization development in China. The empirical results show that: with the back of the sample. The relationship between urbanization efficiency and urban scale is flattened from the early "U-shaped" structure of left, low and right high, and reversed to "inverted U-shaped" structure. The advantages of urbanization of megacities are being transferred to large cities and even to medium and large cities. In terms of efficiency. In order to avoid the loss of efficiency caused by excessive development of megacities and small cities, the development direction of new urbanization should be focused on the large and medium-sized cities with a population of 2.5 million to 7 million.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.2

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