基于系统动力学的公租房BT项目投资风险控制研究

发布时间：2018-01-12 09:23

本文关键词：基于系统动力学的公租房BT项目投资风险控制研究　出处：《重庆交通大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：公共租赁住房(以下简称“公租房”)是我国住房保障体系的重要组成部分。积极发展公租房建设,是为了解决中、低收入群体的住房保障问题。在全国范围内,重庆市对于公租房的建设规模已居于前列,预计其项目建设计划总投资将会超过两百亿元。但是,随之而来的巨大的公租房建设所需资金,成为了政府财政难以负担的问题,致使两者之间的矛盾日渐突出,形成了我国公租房可持续发展建设的一大难题。在这一背景下,通过采用PPP、BOT、BT等投融资模式,将社会资本引入公租房建设领域,这在很大程度上可以有效地缓解政府对公租房项目建设资金投入的不足,从而实现公租房的可持续建设发展。相较于其他投融资模式而言,BT模式在我国公共基础设施建设中的快速兴起和发展,引起了广泛的关注,与此同时,重庆等各大城市也先后尝试运用BT模式进行公租房项目的建设。然而,由于BT模式在我国建设行业应用的时间较短,经验不够丰富以及其相关法律法规的缺失,使得BT模式在实际运行过程中存在一些不规范的操作,而这些都将会影响公租房BT项目在建设过程中存在很多不确定的风险因素,最终导致公租房BT项目投资失败。本文以公租房可持续发展投资建设为背景,从项目业主方的角度出发,进行公租房BT项目投资风险分析与控制研究,采用系统动力学模型进行BT项目投资风险的识别与估计,以此评价BT项目运作过程中影响投资风险的因素,并借助系统动力学软件Vensim进行BT项目投资风险控制的仿真模拟,从而提出公租房BT项目投资风险控制的措施与建议。本文首先对BT项目投资模式的特点,及BT项目投资风险的影响因素进行了概述与分析,以BT项目运作的各个阶段为主线,通过专家问卷调查初步辨识了影响公租房BT项目投资风险的因素;随后,引入系统动力学方法,阐述了其基本理论及应用系统动力学方法的可行性;然后,建立公租房BT项目投资风险识别的系统动力学模型,分析影响投资风险因素之间的相互关系,并在此基础上通过对影响因素进行赋权得到公租房BT项目投资风险的估计模型,从而达到对公租房BT项目投资风险的定量评价;利用Vensim软件技术进行公租房BT项目投资风险控制的仿真模拟;最后,通过案例动态仿真分析结果,提出控制公租房BT项目投资风险的策略与建议。
[Abstract]:Public rental housing (hereinafter referred to as "public rental housing") is an important part of our housing security system. Housing security for low-income groups. Across the country, the construction of public rental housing in Chongqing has been in the forefront of the scale, the project is expected to total investment of more than 20 billion yuan. Following the huge public rental housing construction needs funds, become the government finance difficult to bear the problem, resulting in the increasingly prominent contradiction between the two. Under this background, the social capital is introduced into the field of public rental housing construction by adopting the investment and financing mode such as PPPPPBOTBT and so on. This to a large extent can effectively alleviate the lack of government investment in the construction of public rental housing projects, so as to achieve sustainable construction and development of public rental housing. Compared with other investment and financing models. The rapid rise and development of BT model in the construction of public infrastructure in China has aroused widespread concern at the same time. Chongqing and other major cities have also tried to use BT model for the construction of public rental housing projects. However, because of the BT model in the construction industry in China for a short time. Lack of experience and the lack of relevant laws and regulations make the BT model in the actual operation process there are some non-standard operation. These will affect the public rental housing BT project in the construction process there are a lot of uncertain risk factors, eventually leading to the failure of public rental housing BT project investment. From the point of view of the owner of the project, the investment risk analysis and control of BT public rental housing project is studied, and the system dynamics model is used to identify and estimate the investment risk of BT project. This paper evaluates the factors that affect the investment risk in the process of BT project operation, and simulates the investment risk control of BT project with the help of the system dynamics software Vensim. This paper puts forward the measures and suggestions of investment risk control of BT project of public rental housing. Firstly, this paper summarizes and analyzes the characteristics of investment mode of BT project and the influencing factors of investment risk of BT project. Taking each stage of BT project as the main line, the factors that affect the investment risk of BT project in public rental housing are identified by expert questionnaire survey. Then, the basic theory and the feasibility of applying the system dynamics method are expounded by introducing the system dynamics method. Then, the dynamic model of investment risk identification of public rental housing project is established, and the relationship between investment risk factors and investment risk factors is analyzed. On the basis of this, the investment risk estimation model of public rental housing BT project is obtained by empowering the influencing factors, so as to achieve the quantitative evaluation of the investment risk of public rental housing BT project. Vensim software technology is used to simulate the investment risk control of BT project in public rental housing. Finally, the paper puts forward the strategies and suggestions to control the investment risk of public rental housing project through dynamic simulation and analysis of cases.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.233.42;N941.3

【相似文献】