低碳转型趋势下中国能源消费结构优化

发布时间：2018-01-17 23:11

本文关键词：低碳转型趋势下中国能源消费结构优化　出处：《技术经济》2016年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：运用偏最小二乘回归方法构建能源需求预测模型。结合经济新常态下的发展特征设置基准情景和约束情景,预测了分情景下"十三五"期间中国的能源需求总量、能源消费结构及CO_2排放量。考虑能源、经济和环境因素,构建了能源消费结构多目标优化模型,得到了"十三五"期间优化情景下中国的能源消费结构及其相应的CO_2排放量。研究表明:优化能源消费结构能够有效降低能源消费总量及CO_2排放量;具体而言,到2020年,优化能源消费结构能减少34708.6万吨标准煤的能源消费量(约占基准情景下的6.55%)、88977.9万吨的CO_2排放量(占基准情景下的8.15%)。指出:"十三五"期间中国应侧重天然气、一次电力及其他清洁能源的开发利用以实现低碳发展转型。
[Abstract]:The partial least square regression method is used to construct the energy demand forecasting model. Combining with the development characteristics of the new normal state of the economy, the benchmark scenario and the constraint scenario are set up. The total energy demand, energy consumption structure and CO_2 emissions during the 13th Five-Year Plan period in China are predicted. Considering energy, economic and environmental factors, a multi-objective optimization model of energy consumption structure is constructed. The energy consumption structure of China and its corresponding CO_2 emissions are obtained under the optimization scenario of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The results show that:. Optimizing the energy consumption structure can effectively reduce the total energy consumption and CO_2 emissions; Specifically, by 2020, optimizing the energy consumption mix could reduce energy consumption by three hundred and forty-seven million eighty-six thousand tons of standard coal (about 6.55 per cent of the benchmark scenario). Eight hundred and eighty-nine million seven hundred and seventy-nine thousand tonnes of CO_2 emissions (8.15% of the baseline scenario) point out that China should focus on natural gas during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The development and utilization of primary power and other clean energy to achieve a low-carbon development transition.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;武汉理工大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于拍卖理论的流域梯级水电站群组合竞价机制研究”(71103135);国家自然科学基金项目“基于超网络的企业多主体合作创新与创新群体演化研究”(71373198);国家自然科学基金项目“复杂不确定性多主体多目标合作博弈与协商谈判的合作机制与合作模式”(71231007)
【分类号】：F206
【正文快照】： “低碳经济”概念一经提出,便受到国际社会的广泛关注。经过多轮国际气候谈判及相关协定的正式签署,如今低碳发展转型已成为世界各国在推进全球气候治理进程中的共识。自1978年以来,尤其是进入21世纪以来,中国经济持续高速增长,工业化和城镇化的进程不断加快,能源消费总量大幅

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