LEAP模型下的陕西省节能与温室气体减排潜力分析

发布时间：2018-01-20 05:40

本文关键词： 节能减排 LEAP模型　出处：《西安交通大学学报》2016年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为应对日益严峻的气候变化及能源危机,探索高效的节能减排政策,完成相关政策的定量评价,基于陕西省统计年鉴,结合陕西省实际情况,建立了包含终端能源需求、能源加工转换、资源供应及温室气体排放4模块的陕西省LEAP模型。在对陕西省未来人口、经济发展情况进行预测的基础上,利用该模型对不同政策情景下未来陕西省的能源消耗及温室气体排放情况做出了预测,完成了相关政策的定量评价及节能减排潜力分析。结果表明:随着各项节能减排政策的实施,陕西省的能源消耗量及温室气体排放量均有所降低,在所建立的节能减排综合情景下,2030年陕西省一次能源消耗量与基准情景相比可望降低20.35%,温室气体排放量将降低27.29%;从节能减排技术来看,可再生能源发电技术节能减排成效显著;从用能部门来看,工业、交通及发电部门贡献水平最高。总体来说,陕西省节能减排潜力巨大。
[Abstract]:In order to deal with the increasingly severe climate change and energy crisis, explore efficient energy saving and emission reduction policies, complete the quantitative evaluation of related policies, based on the statistical yearbook of Shaanxi Province, combined with the actual situation in Shaanxi Province. The LEAP model of Shaanxi Province, which includes four modules of terminal energy demand, energy processing, resource supply and greenhouse gas emission, is established. The future population and economic development of Shaanxi Province are forecasted. The model is used to predict the future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of Shaanxi Province under different policy scenarios. The quantitative evaluation of relevant policies and the analysis of the potential of energy saving and emission reduction are completed. The results show that the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of Shaanxi Province have been reduced with the implementation of various energy-saving and emission reduction policies. Under the comprehensive scenario of energy saving and emission reduction, in 2030, the energy consumption of Shaanxi Province is expected to be reduced by 20.35 compared with the baseline scenario, and the greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 27.29; From the point of view of energy saving and emission reduction technology, renewable energy generation technology has achieved remarkable results in energy saving and emission reduction. In terms of energy use, the industry, transport and power sectors contribute the most. Overall, Shaanxi has huge potential for energy conservation and emission reduction.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学能源与动力工程学院;
【分类号】：TK01
【正文快照】： 工业革命以来,人类大量使用石油、煤炭等化石燃料,造成了CO2的大规模排放,加剧了温室效应,带来了海平面上升、生物链断裂、干旱等一系列灾难。按目前的消费水平,石油、天然气最多只能维持不到半个世纪,煤炭也只能维持一二百年[1]。人类正面临着严重的能源危机与环境危机,寻求

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