开发时滞、市场不确定性与城市蔓延

发布时间：2018-02-08 10:51

本文关键词： 不确定性开发时滞城市蔓延灯光数据　出处：《经济研究》2016年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：城市缘何蔓延式发展?城市内部为什么会出现"蛙跳式"蔓延?本文抓住土地开发受市场需求影响以及开发存在时滞这两大现实特征,从市场不确定性对土地开发行为的影响入手,基于经典的动态单中心城市模型框架,构建了解释中国城市土地快速扩张和"蛙跳式"蔓延的理论模型。研究发现,城市的开发密度受到开发时滞和不确定性的交互影响,当存在较长的开发时滞时,市场不确定性与城市蔓延正相关。而且,一旦考虑内外部开发比例,市场不确定性的增加会导致"蛙跳式"蔓延。进而利用DSMP/OLS夜间灯光数据和Landscan全球人口动态分布数据,构建了全新的城市蔓延指数与城市边界人口密度指数,实证检验了市场不确定性对中国城市蔓延的影响。结果证实,市场不确定性增加的确提高了中国城市的蔓延水平。这意味着,由经济波动带来的市场不确性亦是中国城市空间结构塑造的关键诱因。因此,政府对城市蔓延的治理与管控应充分考虑经济波动可能带来的影响。
[Abstract]:Why is the city spreading development? Why does the "frog jump" spread inside the city? This paper focuses on the two real characteristics of land development, which are influenced by market demand and the existence of time lag in development, and starts with the influence of market uncertainty on land development behavior, based on the classical dynamic single-center city model framework. A theoretical model to explain the rapid expansion of urban land in China and the "frog jump" spread is constructed. It is found that the urban development density is influenced by the interaction of development delay and uncertainty, and when there is a long development time lag, Market uncertainty is positively related to urban sprawl. Moreover, when internal and external development ratios are taken into account, increased market uncertainty leads to "frog jump" sprawl, which in turn uses DSMP/OLS night lighting data and Landscan global population dynamic distribution data. A new urban sprawl index and urban boundary population density index are constructed, and the effects of market uncertainty on urban sprawl in China are tested empirically. Increased market uncertainty does raise the level of urban sprawl in China. This means that market uncertainty caused by economic fluctuations is also a key factor in shaping the spatial structure of China's cities. Government governance and control of urban sprawl should take full account of the possible impact of economic fluctuations.
【作者单位】：东南大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目(14&ZD138、15ZDA053),国家社科基金一般项目(15BJL107) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2242014R30015) 江苏省社科研究基地项目(13JDB024)的资助
【分类号】：F299.2

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