我国房地产公司违约风险及防范对策

发布时间：2018-03-13 07:37

  本文选题：违约风险　切入点：未定权益分析法　出处：《河北大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产公司作为房地产行业的供给侧主体,是房地产市场链条的起点也是危机传导的第一站,研究房地产公司违约风险对于把控房地产行业风险水平,促进房地产市场健康发展具有重要意义。本文先对房地产公司违约风险的影响因素进行了分析,之后运用了未定权益分析法,测算了我国主要房地产上市公司10年间每日违约概率以及违约距离,具有大样本以及长跨度的特点,结果基本反映了中国房地产行业所有上市公司整体的违约风险水平及走势,并且在10年时间跨度内观测到了包括2008年的全球金融危机、四万亿刺激、利率市场化改革等各种影响因素在内的综合作用结果。在测算结果中发现我国房地产公司违约概率在2006年至2015年间呈现出了先上升再下降的走势,并且在2014年3月达到了最高点,之后快速下降,至2015年末已经回落到2010年底时的水平,并呈现继续下降的趋势。本文同时使用平衡面板对影响因素进行了实证分析,发现在房地产诸多影响因素中,城镇化水平和货币供给对违约风险的影响较大,并且强于公司财务指标因素;M2与违约风险呈现出负相关关系,说明宽松的货币政策在推高资产价格方面的作用要强于刺激企业增加投资方面的作用;另外,房地产公司资本结构和负债结构与其违约风险之间相关性更强,公司规模与违约风险之间呈现了显著的负相关关系,盈利能力与营运能力影响相对较小。最后本文有针对性的提出了防范对策,建议政府在继续实行宽松货币政策刺激投资拉动经济的同时要注意防范资产泡沫风险,严控政策底线,避免过度宽松;同时建议房地产企业优化自身的资本结构和负债结构,积极转变融资模式,主动调整业务结构,更加注重企业发展的效益与质量,建议通过并购扩大规模,而不是通过过度负债实现规模增长,最终导致违约风险的升高。
[Abstract]:As the supply-side main body of the real estate industry, real estate companies are the starting point of the real estate market chain and the first stop of crisis transmission. It is of great significance to promote the healthy development of the real estate market. This paper calculates the daily default probability and default distance of the main real estate listed companies in China for 10 years, which has the characteristics of large sample and long span. The result basically reflects the level and trend of the default risk of all listed companies in China's real estate industry as a whole. And over a 10-year period of time, the global financial crisis, including the 4 trillion stimulus, was observed in 2008. The combined effect of various factors, such as interest rate marketization reform, shows that the probability of default of real estate companies in China rose first and then decreased between 2006 and 2015. It reached its highest point in March 2014, then dropped rapidly, then dropped back to end of 2010 level on end of 2015, and showed a continuing downward trend. This paper also uses the balance panel to make empirical analysis of the influencing factors. It is found that the urbanization level and money supply have a greater impact on default risk in real estate, and that M _ 2 has a negative correlation with default risk than corporate financial index factor M _ 2. It shows that the role of loose monetary policy in driving up asset prices is stronger than that in stimulating enterprises to increase investment. In addition, the capital structure and debt structure of real estate companies are more closely related to their default risk. There is a significant negative correlation between company size and default risk, and the influence of profitability and operation capacity is relatively small. While continuing to implement loose monetary policies to stimulate investment and stimulate the economy, the government should pay attention to preventing the risk of asset bubbles, strictly control the bottom line of the policy, and avoid excessive easing. At the same time, it is suggested that real estate enterprises should optimize their own capital structure and debt structure. We should actively change the financing mode, adjust the business structure actively and pay more attention to the benefit and quality of the enterprise development. It is suggested that the scale should be expanded through M & A instead of excessive debt, which will eventually lead to the increase of default risk.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.233.4
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本文编号：1605426