经济新常态下我国经济周期阶段性的非对称特征

发布时间：2018-03-16 02:02

本文选题：经济周期　切入点：非对称　出处：《当代经济研究》2016年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：非对称特征是经济周期中的典型化事实,体现为经济增长速度和波动率在周期形态上的非一致性。从我国经济周期非对称形成原因的发展历程来看,计划经济中强制的行政调整在逐步退出,越来越多地使用市场经济体制中的各种宏观经济政策,且宏观经济政策的调控手段趋于多样化,调控能力越来越强。但是,国际社会上的外在不确定性和国内的外在冲击也时有发生,各种合力的综合作用导致了形态各异的非对称经济周期。我国经济进入新常态后,由于增速均值下移,波动率降低,导致非对称性减弱,出现了"L型"波动征兆,这意味着新常态阶段将呈现出平均增速下移的趋势性特征。对此,我国应该采取必要的针对性宏观调控措施。
[Abstract]:The asymmetric characteristic is the typical fact in the economic cycle, which is reflected in the inconsistency of the speed of economic growth and the volatility in the form of the cycle. The compulsory administrative adjustment in the planned economy is gradually withdrawing, and more and more macroeconomic policies in the market economy system are being used. Moreover, the means of control of the macroeconomic policies tend to be diversified, and the ability to regulate and control is becoming stronger and stronger. External uncertainties in the international community and external domestic shocks also occur from time to time. The combined effects of various resultant forces have led to asymmetric economic cycles of different shapes. After China's economy entered the new normal, due to the downward shift in the average growth rate, the volatility rate decreased. This will lead to the weakening of asymmetry and the appearance of "L type" fluctuation, which means that the new normal stage will show the trend of the average growth rate moving downward. In this regard, China should take the necessary measures of macro regulation and control.
【作者单位】：暨南大学深圳旅游学院;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(14CJY004) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(22614817)
【分类号】：F124.8;F224

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