关中—天水经济区农民居住集聚的模式选择

发布时间：2018-03-16 11:03

本文选题：关中—天水经济区　切入点：农民居住集聚　出处：《西安工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国在城镇化跨越式推进以及经济渐入“新常态”的大趋势下,长期以来对二元结构框架下非均衡发展路径的过度依赖局面仍未得到根本性逆转。城镇经济的快速倾斜式发展,严重损害了城乡协调、统筹发展的良性机制,由此迸发出农村发展边缘化、空心化；后备土地资源频频告急；农村长期建设规划失位、农民住宅非理性扩张以及留守人口系统性风险加剧等一系列症结。研究农民居住集聚问题不仅有助于上述难题的化解,更事关城乡二元制经济结构的破解以及农民居住条件现代化的达成、是构建城乡一体化建设体系的关键一环,因而其理论价值高、政策意义大。本文以经济学理论为指导,采取规范分析与实证分析相结合等方法,对关天区农民居住集聚的模式选择这一核心问题展开研究。首先,通过对入户调查问卷数据和相关资料进行描述统计分析,从土地利用、人口结构以及经济发展等方面为切入点,揭示农民“空心村”居住的现状及存在问题；接着以村庄评价指标体系为分析基石,针对如何构建农民居住模式选择的数理方法体系,通过建立以因子分析(进行降维处理)、聚类分析(进行村庄归类),以及贝叶斯判别分析(进行居住集聚模式的定量描述)三者相结合的分析范式,从实证角度为农民居住集聚模式选择提供定量方法支撑；然后,以受统计村庄的聚类结果为依据,构建与之高度匹配的四种农民居住集聚模式并深入探究每种模式的可能实现路径；最后立足于关天区实际情况,得出了农民居住集聚的模式选择应当遵循集聚经济理论为指导、统筹设计、同时进行政策扶持、并尊重农民意愿等结论。
[Abstract]:China's economic leap forward and gradually into the trend of "new normal" in the town for a long time, two yuan structure under the framework of the non balanced development path dependence situation has not been fundamentally reversed. Fast sloping urban economic development, serious damage to the urban and rural coordination, benign mechanism of overall development. Bursting out the rural development marginalization, hollowing; reserve land resources frequent emergency; rural construction planning long-term loss, farmer housing irrational expansion and increased risk of left behind population system and a series of research in resolving problem. Farmers live gathering problems not only contribute to the problem, but also close to two yuan for urban and rural economic structure the crack and the living conditions of farmers to achieve modernization, is a key link to construct the system of the integration of urban and rural construction, so its theoretical value is high, the policy significance of economic theory in this paper. The guidance of theory of normative analysis combined with empirical analysis and other methods, to bring the farmers living area agglomeration mode selection of this core issue. Firstly, through descriptive statistical analysis of questionnaire data and related information from land use, population structure and economic development as the starting point so as to reveal the farmers "hollow village" living status and problems; then the evaluation index system for the analysis of village foundation, aiming at how to construct the system of mathematical method of residential mode selection of farmers, by establishing a factor analysis (dimension), cluster analysis (village classification), and Bayesian discriminant analysis (Quantitative residential agglomeration mode description) analysis paradigm of the combination of the three, from the perspective of empirical model for farmers living agglomeration provide quantitative methods to support; then, by the statistical village of Poly Class based on the results, the construction of four farmers living height matched with the cluster model and explore the possible path of each mode; finally, based on the actual situation in this area, the mode selection of farmers living agglomeration should follow the agglomeration economy theory, integration design, and policy support, and respect the farmer will the conclusion.

【学位授予单位】：西安工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F327;F299.27

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