工资黏性、经济波动与中国通货膨胀目标预期冲击——基于黏性动态随机一般模型的研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 21:49

本文选题：价格黏性　切入点：工资黏性　出处：《经济经纬》2016年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：笔者根据DSGE模型,首次全面考虑价格黏性和工资黏性,对产出缺口、通货膨胀预期、利率及工资之间动态关系采用高阶滞后DSGE模型建模,结果显示考虑价格黏性和工资黏性的DSGE模型对我国宏观经济波动拟合效果较好,通货膨胀预期冲击对宏观经济变量影响不可忽视,滞后时间为1年到2年半,我国工资黏性特征不如价格黏性特征明显,调整时间为半年,货币政策冲击对通货膨胀和利率影响较快,通货膨胀预期冲击、劳动供给替代弹性冲击和货币政策冲击能够解释宏观经济变量波动的大部分,央行采用价格型货币政策工具需考虑预期效应,政策制定应及时发布消息,提高政策透明度,从而增强政策的长期有效性。
[Abstract]:According to the DSGE model, the author considers the price viscosity and wage viscosity for the first time. The dynamic relationship among output gap, inflation expectation, interest rate and wages is modeled by high-order lag DSGE model. The results show that the DSGE model with price viscosity and wage viscosity can fit the macroeconomic fluctuation well, and the impact of inflation expectation impact on macroeconomic variables can not be ignored, and the lag time is from 1 year to 2 and a half years. The characteristics of wage viscosity in China are not as obvious as those of price stickiness. The adjustment time is half a year. The impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation and interest rates is relatively fast, and inflation is expected to impact. The elasticity shock of labor supply substitution and monetary policy shock can explain most of the fluctuation of macroeconomic variables, the central bank should consider the expected effect by using price monetary policy tool, and the policy formulation should release information in time to improve policy transparency. Thus enhancing the long-term effectiveness of the policy.
【作者单位】：山东工商学院统计学院;厦门大学王亚南经济研究院和经济学院;
【基金】：国家教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(12YJC910013) 国家博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2014T70609) 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2014GL004)
【分类号】：F249.24;F124;F822.5

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