引入风险模型的投资项目经济评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-21 01:31

本文选题：投资决策　切入点：经济评价　出处：《昆明理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：投资项目的经济评价是项目立项运行前必不可少的环节。我国政府明确规定了投资项目立项前必须具有具备资质的咨询机构出具的项目可行性研究报告。项目的经济评价正是评判该项目是否可行的重要组成部分,特别是在以公司(投资者)盈利为目的的前提下,项目经济评价的结果好坏对投资者做出合理决策具有重要意义。目前来看,我国所采用的项目经济评价的方法和参数是由2006年国家发现的《方法与参数(第三版)》中规定的内容决定的。然而8年过去了,整个国家乃至全球的经济都得以飞速地发展,各行各业的发展状况发生了很大的变化,越来越多的因素会影响到传统经济评价方法对项目经济评价结果的正确性和准确性。因此,我们需要对传统的项目经济评价方法做适当的调整,使之能够符合社会发展的规律和趋势,从而达到正确地对投资项目进行经济评价的目的。本文首先在阐述了此次研究的背景意义以及国内外的研究现状,并总结归纳了投资项目经济评价、投资项目风险和经济预测方法等方面的相关理论。然后从微观风险和宏观风险两个方面入手,分别建立不同的风险引入模型,对传统项目经济评价方法加以调整。微观风险方面,分析了项目净现金流量波动的特征,并由此量化和引入净现金流量波动风险；宏观方面,以利率浮动衡量宏观经济环境的变化,通过分析历年利率变化,预测未来年度利率,引入宏观经济环境变化风险。综合二者,形成新的引入风险的投资项目经济评价方法。最后,通过案例分析对该模型进行了应用。结果表明,该新方法不仅具有传统方法所具备的功能,还能够为投资者提供额外的经济信息,从而使投资者更好地做出决策,把握投资机会。
[Abstract]:The economic evaluation of the investment project is an essential link before the project is established and run. Our government has clearly stipulated that the investment project must have a qualified consulting agency to issue the project feasibility study report. Economic evaluation is an important part of judging the viability of the project. Especially on the premise of the profit of the company (investor), the result of the economic evaluation of the project is of great significance for the investor to make reasonable decision. The methods and parameters of project economic evaluation adopted in our country are determined by the contents stipulated in "methods and parameters (third Edition)" discovered by our country in 2006. However, eight years have passed, and the economy of the whole country and even the whole world has been able to develop rapidly. Great changes have taken place in the development of various industries, and more and more factors will affect the correctness and accuracy of the traditional economic evaluation methods for the economic evaluation of projects. We need to make appropriate adjustments to the traditional methods of economic evaluation of projects so that they can conform to the laws and trends of social development. In order to achieve the purpose of economic evaluation of investment projects correctly. Firstly, this paper expounds the background significance of this study and the current research situation at home and abroad, and summarizes the economic evaluation of investment projects. Investment project risk and economic forecasting methods and other related theories. Then from the micro risk and macro risk two aspects, respectively, establish different risk introduction model, The article analyzes the characteristics of the fluctuation of the net cash flow of the project, and then quantifies and introduces the volatility risk of the net cash flow. The change of macroeconomic environment is measured by the fluctuation of interest rate, the change of interest rate in past years is analyzed, the future annual interest rate is forecasted, and the risk of change of macroeconomic environment is introduced. A new method of economic evaluation of investment projects with risk is formed. Finally, the model is applied through case analysis. The results show that the new method not only has the functions of traditional methods, It can also provide investors with additional economic information, so that investors can make better decisions and seize investment opportunities.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F283

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