能源替代政策对石油经济成本影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-23 04:33

本文选题：能源替代政策　切入点：石油经济成本　出处：《合肥工业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的不断增长,石油需求量不断提高,并且在全球石油储量骤减、石油价格不断波动的背景下,我国石油的对外依存度急剧上升,石油经济成本持续走高,阻碍我国经济发展。因此,寻求有效的能源政策来降低石油经济成本刻不容缓。近年来,我国汽车保有量迅速增加,不仅导致石油消费量的大幅增加；汽车尾气还导致严重的空气污染。因此,新能源汽车行业兴起,并以天然气汽车、醇类燃料汽车、纯电动车为代表。发展新能源汽车和高效节能汽车成为一类重要的能源替代政策。基于以上背景,本文首先选择了五种能源替代政策：推行天然气汽车、推行乙醇汽油汽车、推行甲醇汽油汽车、推行高效率汽车、推行纯电动汽车,并分别阐述了每种替代政策的具体含义。其次,分析能源替代政策影响石油经济成本的途径,搭建能源替代政策与石油经济成本之间的桥梁。通过建立模型,计算政策下的石油价格和石油价格-GDP弹性。然后,通过建立能源替代政策下的石油经济成本模型,对比分析基准情形与政策情形下的石油经济成本,得到实施能源替代政策获得的总预期收益。并依据政策获得的预期总收益减去政策所需的实施成本,进而分析不同能源替代政策的净经济收益。最后,本文综合考虑能源替代政策的经济收益、环境收益两方面,有针对性的提出合理控制我国石油经济成本的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of China's economy, the demand for oil is increasing, and under the background of the sharp decrease of global oil reserves and the fluctuation of oil prices, the degree of external dependence of oil in China has risen sharply, and the economic cost of petroleum has continued to rise. Therefore, it is urgent to seek effective energy policies to reduce the economic cost of petroleum. In recent years, the number of automobile ownership in China has increased rapidly, which not only leads to a large increase in oil consumption; Car exhaust also causes serious air pollution. As a result, the new energy car industry is emerging and using natural gas vehicles, alcohol-fueled vehicles, The development of new energy vehicles and efficient energy efficient vehicles has become a kind of important energy substitution policy. Based on the above background, this paper first chose five kinds of energy alternative policies: to promote natural gas vehicles, to promote ethanol gasoline vehicles, To promote methanol gasoline vehicle, high efficiency vehicle, pure electric vehicle, and explain the specific meaning of each alternative policy respectively. Secondly, analyze the ways that energy substitution policy affects the economic cost of oil. To build a bridge between the energy substitution policy and the economic cost of oil. By building a model to calculate the price of oil and the elasticity of the oil price-GDP under the policy, and then, by establishing a model of the economic cost of oil under the policy of energy substitution, By comparing and analyzing the economic cost of oil in the base case and the policy situation, we can get the total expected income from the implementation of the energy substitution policy, and according to the expected total income of the policy, minus the implementation cost of the policy, Finally, this paper synthetically considers the economic benefits of energy substitution policy and environmental benefits, and puts forward some policy suggestions to control the economic cost of petroleum in China.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22;F206

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