我国城镇化对二氧化碳排放的长期影响和短期波动效应分析

发布时间：2018-03-26 17:17

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：工业化　出处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年08期

【摘要】：过去三十年我国处于工业化和城镇化快速推进阶段,文中分析了城镇化对二氧化碳排放影响的时间效应,用协整的方法检验了我国城镇化和二氧化碳排放之间的长期稳定关系,并采用误差修正模型分析了影响的短期波动效应。研究结果表明,在我国城镇化和工业化快速发展的背景下,城镇化进程和二氧化碳排放之间存在长期稳定的关系,且短期内也存在波动效应。协整分析结果显示,中国城市化率每增加一个百分点,碳排放增加1.44个百分点;工业增加值占GDP的比重每上升一个百分点,碳排放相应增加1.86个百分点;中国的能源效率每提高一个百分点,二氧化碳排放相应减少0.04个百分点。而基于误差修正模型的短期波动效应分析结果表明,城镇化和工业化会向负向调整二氧化碳的排放,使碳排放趋向均衡。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years, China is in the stage of rapid development of industrialization and urbanization. This paper analyzes the time effect of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions, and tests the long-term stable relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions by cointegration method. The results show that there is a long-term stable relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions under the background of rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in China. Cointegration analysis shows that China's urbanization rate increases by 1.44 percentage points for each percentage point increase in urbanization, and the proportion of industrial value added to GDP rises by one percentage point. Carbon emissions are increased by 1.86 percentage points, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by 0.04 percentage points when China's energy efficiency increases by one percentage point, and the results of short-term volatility analysis based on error correction model show that, Urbanization and industrialization will negatively adjust the emissions of carbon dioxide, so that carbon emissions tend to balance.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所;南开大学环境科学与工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(No.71373134,71003056) 国家社科基金重大项目(No.13&ZD147);国家社科基金青年项目(NO.15CGJ024)资助
【分类号】：X22;F299.21

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