烟台海港医院新医疗综合楼建设项目投资风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-05 23:13

本文选题：项目投资风险　切入点：风险管理　出处：《中国海洋大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会的发展和居民健康意识的提高,社会公众对医疗服务的需求也日渐增加,同时医院之间的竞争也在加剧,不仅仅表现在技术人才的质量和数量上,还体现在硬件水平的强弱上。一个现代化综合性医院,只有基础设施水平上来了,才能有立足的坚实后盾。新医疗综合楼建设是符合医院发展需要和满足人们服务需求的重要举措,具备广大的市场前景和较高的社会意义。本文以烟台海港医院新医疗综合楼建设项目为研究对象,通过搜集有关项目管理和风险管理的有关资料和文献了解了医院建设项目风险管理的相关现状,认为对致力于该领域的研究具有较高的理论和现实意义。本文的研究主要分为七个部分：一是绪论,即研究背景及意义,对国内外的文献进行梳理和归纳,并阐述本文的研究内容、方法、技术路线和结构安排等；二是一般性理论和方法的介绍,包括不确定性分析理论、风险分析理论以及常用的风险评价方法；三是对项目概况的介绍,包括烟台海港医院信息的简要介绍、新综合楼建设项目提出的背景和必要性、选址的优缺点、项目建设的规模方案等；四是项目投资风险识别,对项目的特点和风险特征有个明确的界定；五是本文的重点章节,包括对项目建设的投资成本等财务数据进行估算,并利用这些数据进行盈亏平衡分析和敏感性分析等不确定性分析,最后重点运用模糊层次分析法对风险作出综合评价;六是针对烟台港投资风险评价结果提出相应的应对策略；七是总结与展望。在风险理论中,风险识别过程一般分为风险识别、风险估计、风险评价和风险对策四个步骤,这也是本研究的主要研究脉络。在学术思想创新性上,本文将风险理论识别和风险分析的方法应用于烟台港医院这一特殊项目进行研究,综合运用了盈亏平衡分析法、敏感性分析法、层次分析法和模糊分析法,从全方位多角度进行了研究,考察的较为全面。从研究结果来看,盈亏平衡法得出项目销售58.18%就可以收回初始投资,超过58.18%的部分称为本项目的盈利；层次分析法得出财务风险、勘察风险和需求风险是项目的三个最主要的风险因素,仅这三者所占权重高达69.81%;模糊综合评价方法得出项目的风险总值为3.53765,属于中等风险水平。为有效应对各种风险的发生,提出了保证财务报表谨慎及时、提高资本流动性、构建专业化风险评估小组等一系列对策,以期对项目建设的顺利完成有一定的指导和借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and population health awareness, the public's demand for medical services is also increasing, and the competition between hospitals has intensified, not only in the quantity and quality of technical personnel, is also reflected in the hardware level. A modern comprehensive hospital, only the level of infrastructure. And in order to have a solid backing. Based on the new medical building construction is in line with the needs of the hospital and an important measure to meet people demand, have broad market prospects and higher social significance. In this paper, a new medical complex building construction project of Yantai Harbor Hospital as the research object, through the collection of relevant information and documents about project management and risk management about the current situation of hospital construction project risk management, that has higher research devoted to the field of the theoretical and practical significance. The research is mainly divided into seven parts: the first part is introduction, the research background and significance, the domestic and foreign literature and summarizes and describes the research content, the method, technical route and structural arrangements; two is the general theory and method is introduced, including the uncertainty of risk analysis theory. Theoretical analysis and risk evaluation methods in common use; three of the project overview, including brief introduction of Yantai harbor hospital information, the background and the necessity of new building construction project is put forward. The advantages and disadvantages of the location of the project, the construction scale scheme; four is to identify the project investment risk characteristics and risk characteristics of the project. Have a clearly defined; the five is the focus of this chapter, including the construction of the project investment cost and financial data for estimation, and breakeven analysis and sensitivity analysis using these data uncertainty Qualitative analysis, finally focus on the use of Fuzzy AHP to make a comprehensive assessment of the risk; the six is for Yantai port investment risk evaluation results put forward corresponding strategies; the seven is the conclusion and prospect. In risk theory, the risk identification process is generally divided into risk identification, risk estimation, risk evaluation and Countermeasures of the four steps. Is the main research context. In the innovation of academic thought, this paper applied the theory of risk identification and risk analysis on the special project of Yantai port hospital were studied, using Ying Kuiping equilibrium analysis method, sensitivity analysis method, AHP method and fuzzy analysis method, studied from the full range of multi the more comprehensive perspective. The study results indicate that the breakeven point method that the project sales of 58.18% will be able to recover the initial investment, more than 58.18% of the part called the project profitability AHP method; financial risk investigation, risk and demand risk are three main risk factors of the project, only the three total weight of up to 69.81%; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the results of the risk of the project amounted to 3.53765, which belongs to the medium risk level. In order to effectively cope with the occurrence of various risks, put forward to ensure the financial the report carefully in a timely manner, improve the mobility of capital, the construction of the professional risk assessment team and a series of countermeasures, with a view to the project construction has successfully completed a certain guidance and reference.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.23

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