近半个世纪三江源地区气候变化与可持续发展适应对策研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 01:39

  本文选题：气温突变 + 降水空间分布　； 参考：《生态经济》2016年02期

【摘要】：三江源地区位于我国西部,是澜沧江、黄河、长江的发源地,也是全国生态系统的天然屏障,具有重要的生态意义。利用1960~2013年三江源境内13个气象站点的月气温、降水资料,采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、样条函数插值法等气候数理统计方法,分析了三江源地区气温突变前后三个源区降水空间分布特征,并针对气候变化分别为三个源区提出可持续发展适应对策,结论如下:(1)三江源及其三个源区年及四季气候均呈暖湿化趋势。(2)三江源年气温发生突变后长江源北部降水明显增多;春季气温突变后,澜沧江源、黄河源冬南部降水明显增多;夏季气温突变后,长江源北部降水明显增多;秋季降水空间分布在气温突前变后变化不明显;冬季气温突变后,长江源北部降水持续减少,黄河源东南部降水明显增多。(3)气候变化下澜沧江源区可持续发展适应对策为合理使用水草资源、提高农业生产集约化;黄河源区为控制源区人口数量、合理规划产业布局;长江源区为建立三江源自然保护区的核心区、加大生态环境工程建设及治理力度。
[Abstract]:Located in the west of China, the source area of the three rivers is the birthplace of the Lancang River, the Yellow River and the Yangtze River, as well as the natural barrier of the national ecosystem, which has important ecological significance. Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 13 meteorological stations in the source of the three Rivers from 1960 to 2013, the mathematical statistical methods of climate, such as Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and spline function interpolation, are used. The spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation in the three source regions before and after the temperature abrupt change in the source region of the three rivers are analyzed, and the countermeasures of sustainable development adaptation to climate change for the three sources are put forward. Conclusion: (1) the climate of Sanjiangyuan and its three source areas are warm and wet in the year and four seasons. (2) the precipitation in the north of the Yangtze River increases obviously after the annual temperature abrupt change in the source of the three rivers, and the precipitation in the southern part of the winter of the source of the Yellow River and the source of the Yellow River increases obviously after the sudden change of the temperature in the spring. After the sudden change of temperature in summer, the precipitation in the northern part of the Yangtze River increased obviously, the spatial distribution of precipitation in autumn was not obvious after the sudden change of temperature, and the precipitation in the northern part of the source of the Yangtze River decreased continuously after the sudden change of temperature in winter. The countermeasures for sustainable development of the source region of Lancang River under climate change are rational use of water and grass resources and intensification of agricultural production, and the source region of the Yellow River should control the population of the source area and plan the industrial layout rationally. The source area of the Yangtze River is the core area for the establishment of the Sanjiangyuan Nature Reserve, and the construction and management of ecological environment engineering are strengthened.
【作者单位】： 北京师范大学资源学院;
【分类号】：P467;X22
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本文编号：1789905