理解中国通货膨胀—紧缩交替现象——基于BVAR模型的估计

发布时间：2018-04-24 23:35

  本文选题：投资冲击 + 通货膨胀—紧缩交替　； 参考：《经济问题探索》2016年04期

【摘要】：1992年投资冲击和2008年"四万亿投资"冲击分别导致了接下来的通货膨胀-紧缩交替。BVAR模型脉冲响应函数发现,投资冲击发生后,2-3年,将发生通货膨胀,而第4年开始,转为通货紧缩。前后两次投资冲击的制度背景不同,前者是计划经济向市场经济过渡时期;后者是较完善的市场经济时期;投资主体不同,前者是地方性国有企业和村、镇乡镇企业;后者是政府以基础设施投资为目的的融资平台公司和大型国有企业;形成机理不同,前者主要是投资冲击导致的供给短缺造成的,后者微观主体的预期发挥更重要的作用;影响程度不同:前者通胀更严重,后者紧缩更严重。人民币汇率适度贬值,以促进出口;推进大型国有企业改革,以化解中上游行业过剩产能;降低利率和准备金率,以促进内需和降低企业融资成本。"三位一体"的政策体系,将帮助中国经济摆脱目前的通缩,走向内生驱动的良性发展之路。
[Abstract]:The investment shock in 1992 and the "4 trillion investment" shock in 2008 led to the following inflation-contraction alternating. BVAR model impulse response function respectively. It was found that the investment shock occurred 2-3 years after, inflation would occur, and the fourth year would begin. Turn to deflation. The former is a period of transition from planned economy to market economy, the latter is a more perfect period of market economy, the former is a local state-owned enterprise, and the former is a town and township enterprise. The latter is a financing platform company and a large state-owned enterprise whose purpose is to invest in infrastructure, the formation mechanism is different, the former is mainly caused by the shortage of supply caused by the investment shock, the latter plays a more important role in the expectation of the micro subject. The impact is different: the former inflation is more severe, the latter tightening is more severe. "the renminbi is depreciating moderately to boost exports; to promote reform of large state-owned enterprises to address excess capacity in the upper and middle reaches; and to reduce interest rates and reserve requirements to boost domestic demand and reduce corporate financing costs." The Trinity policy system will help the Chinese economy get rid of the current deflation and move towards an endogenous and benign development path.
【作者单位】： 上海立信会计学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科基金项目“中国结构性通货膨胀的解释:财政分权和信贷配给下的理论与实证”(11YJC90160),项目负责人:孙力军
【分类号】：F822.5;F224
，

本文编号：1798788