城中村可改造能力测度与改造路径选择研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 19:44

本文选题：城中村改造 + 系统动力学　；参考：《广州大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：城中村问题是实施国家新型城镇化急待解决的关键问题之一。近年来,虽然中央政府高度重视、地方政府全力推动城中村改造,但是城中村改造进展始终缓慢;究其原因是在城中村改造决策阶段和策划初期,没有妥善处理好改造项目选择、改造模式与改造路径选择等决策问题。本文旨在以城中村可改造能力测度与改造路径选择为线索,设计一套符合国家新型城镇化要求的城中村可改造能力测度与改造路径选择方法,以期提高地方政府的城中村改造决策质量。研究的具体内容包括城中村形成分析(构建城中村系统动力学模型)、城中村改造路径分析与选择(基于城中村可改造能力测度及聚类分析)等方面。论文对城中村形成与维系的原因进行了系统分析。界定了与城中村相关的概念,系统分析了城中村形成与维系的5项城乡二元制度差异、政府等的10项行为动力,在此基础上构建了城中村系统动力学模型;剖析了城中村问题的现状特征、现有改造模式与改造路径的困境。对城中村可改造能力测度与改造路径选择方法进行了架构。分析了城中村改造的项目属性特征,提出了城中村可改造能力测度与改造路径选择的思路;分析了城中村改造内、外部影响因素,构建了城中村可改造能力测度的概念、理论模型、指标体系及方法;提出了多维度的城中村改造模式分析方法、改造模式与改造路径选择与匹配方法,优化了改造方案编制流程。对广州市城中村可改造能力测度进行了应用研究。分析了广州市城中村的分布情况、形成情况以及既有的2种分类与特征;选择了广州市城中村的研究对象与研究区域,收集了90个城中村有效样本的基本情况、三资规模、社会需求情况等的原始数据;计算了广州市城中村可改造能力综合指数;验证了可改造能力测度指标体系与方法的有效性,在此基础上运用K-means聚类法将广州市城中村分为了5类。对广州市城中村改造路径选择进行了仿真研究。明确了城中村改造的一般原则,分析了广州市城中村可行的改造路径,基于聚类分析提出了城中村分类改造的多元化改造路径与用地模式;并对地方政府的城镇化用地策略、城中村改造策略进行了仿真模拟与分析;在此基础上,探讨了城市可持续发展视角下的城中村全面改造建议;提出了以智慧城中村建设与运营作为城中村改造路径的创新性综合整治方式与建议。本文系统的研究了城中村可改造能力测度与改造路径选择的理论与方法,将4M1E、鱼刺图、价值工程、WBS等项目管理理论与方法、系统动力学方法、多指标综合评价方法、K-means聚类法、智慧社区理论与技术等引入到研究中来,丰富了城中村改造领域的研究方法;建立了城中村系统动力学模型,城中村可改造能力测度模型,城中村改造模式与改造路径多维分析、选择与匹配方法,智慧城中村系统模块架构;并以广州市城中村为例进行了可改造能力测度的应用研究和改造路径选择的仿真研究,以期能充分利用好城中村这一资源,推动国家新型城镇化要求下的城中村改造的实施。
[Abstract]:The village problem in the city is one of the key problems to be solved urgently. In recent years, although the central government attaches great importance to the local government, the local government has fully promoted the transformation of the village in the city, but the progress of the transformation of the village in the city has always been slow. The reason is that the reconstruction project is not properly handled in the decision-making stage and the initial stage of the city village transformation. The purpose of this paper is to design a set of measures to measure the remolding ability of the village in the city and to improve the decision quality of the village reform in the city in order to improve the quality of the village reform in the city. The specific contents include the analysis of the village formation (construction of the village system dynamics model), the analysis and selection of the transformation path of the village in the city (based on the measure of the ability to transform the village in the city and the cluster analysis). The paper systematically analyzes the reasons for the formation and maintenance of the village in the city. The village formation and maintenance of 5 urban and rural two yuan system difference, the government and other 10 behavior motivation, based on the construction of the village system dynamics model in the city, analyzed the status of the village problem in the city, the existing transformation model and the dilemma of the transformation path. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the project property of the village transformation in the city, puts forward the ideas of the measure of the remolding ability of the village in the city and the choice of the transformation path, analyzes the external influencing factors in the transformation of the village in the city, and constructs the concept, the theoretical model, the index system and the method of the remolding ability of the village in the city, and puts forward the analysis method of the multi-dimensional transformation mode of the village in the city. The transformation model and the way of the transformation path selection and matching have been optimized. The application of the measure of the remolding ability of the village in Guangzhou city was studied. The distribution, the formation and the 2 kinds of classification and characteristics of the villages in Guangzhou city were analyzed, and the research objects and research areas of the village in Guangzhou city were selected. The basic data of the effective samples of 90 villages, the three capital scale, the social demand and so on are collected. The comprehensive index of the reconstructive ability of the village in Guangzhou city is calculated, and the validity of the index system and method of the measure of reconstructing ability is verified. On this basis, the village in Guangzhou city is divided into 5 types by using the K-means clustering method. In the city, the village transformation path selection is simulated. The general principle of the village transformation in the city is clarified, the feasible transformation path of the village in Guangzhou city is analyzed. Based on the cluster analysis, the diversified transformation path and land use pattern of the village in the city are put forward, and the local government's urbanization strategy and the village reform strategy are carried out. On the basis of this, this paper discusses the proposal of comprehensive renovation in urban village under the perspective of urban sustainable development, and puts forward the innovative comprehensive renovation methods and suggestions of village construction and operation in the city of intelligent city as the path of urban village transformation. This paper systematically studies the measure of the remolding ability and the choice of the transformation path of the village in the city. Theory and method, 4M1E, fish plot, value engineering, WBS and other project management theories and methods, system dynamics method, multi index comprehensive evaluation method, K-means clustering method, intelligent community theory and technology have been introduced into the research, which enriches the research method of village reform in the city; the village system dynamics model is established, the village in the city can be established. In order to make full use of the village in Guangzhou, we can make full use of the resources of the village in the city. The implementation of the transformation of urban villages under the requirement of new urbanization.

【学位授予单位】：广州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.21

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