偏好与消费能力对居民消费行为的影响研究——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的模拟分析

发布时间：2018-05-08 05:52

本文选题：偏好 + 消费能力　；参考：《中央财经大学学报》2016年06期

【摘要】：众所周知,扩大内需是当前中国最大的经济结构调整。与扩大内需密切相关的一个核心问题是如何促进国内居民消费,而解决此问题的一个关键环节是梳理出能够影响居民消费行为的潜在因素。笔者建立了一个涵盖消费者偏好和消费能力变量的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型。通过贝叶斯估计技术识别出消费者偏好、消费能力等五类外生冲击,并重点考察了消费者偏好与消费能力冲击对居民消费行为的影响。结论表明:消费者偏好及消费能力冲击均对居民消费波动产生了明显影响,但消费者偏好使得居民消费波动的波幅更加显著;在短期和长期内消费者偏好冲击均可以解释三分之一以上的居民消费波动,而消费能力仅能够解释不足2%的波动;相比消费能力,消费者偏好对居民消费行为的影响更大。笔者基于上述结论认为,在以扩大内需为目标之一的经济发展方式转型背景下,通过提升居民的消费信心并合理引导消费情绪以提高消费者偏好显得尤为重要。
[Abstract]:As we all know, expanding domestic demand is China's largest economic restructuring. One of the core problems closely related to the expansion of domestic demand is how to promote the consumption of domestic residents, and a key link to solve this problem is to sort out the potential factors that can affect the consumption behavior of residents. A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGEE) model covering consumer preference and consumption power variables is established. Five kinds of exogenous shocks, such as consumer preference and consumption ability, are identified by Bayesian estimation technique, and the influence of consumer preference and power shock on consumer behavior is investigated. The results show that the impact of consumer preference and consumption ability has a significant impact on the fluctuation of consumption, but consumer preference makes the fluctuation of consumption more significant. In the short and long term, the impact of consumer preference can explain the fluctuation of consumption over 1/3, but the consumption ability can only explain the fluctuation of less than 2%. Consumer preference has more influence on consumer behavior than consumer power. Based on the above conclusions, the author believes that under the background of the transformation of economic development mode with the goal of expanding domestic demand, it is particularly important to improve consumer preference by promoting the consumer confidence and reasonably guiding consumer sentiment.
【作者单位】：西北农林科技大学经济管理学院;中国人民银行郑州培训学院;
【分类号】：F126.1;F224

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