基于生态学的大型工程项目融资风险管理体系研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 04:12

本文选题：生态学 + 大型工程　；参考：《青岛理工大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：寻求一种有效的大型工程项目的融资风险管理体系一直是困扰工程界和学术界的难题。现有的研究成果都注重于项目融资风险管理体系中的单一环节,造成融资风险管理环节之间连续性和一致性较差,减弱了风险管理的效果。本文从大型工程项目融资风险管理体系的主要四个环节入手,分别在风险识别、评估、预警和应对的研究中加入了生态学的相关理论,从而建立一个系统、联系和跨学科的风险研究视角。在大型工程项目融资风险识别上,生态因子理论提供了项目融资风险因子识别的新视角。从项目生态功能系统出发,对应自然生态功能系统的能量流、物质流、信息流和价值流,结合LC-EBS分解体系,以项目全生命周期和项目功能系统角度发掘大型工程项目融资的内部融资风险因子。从项目协同角度出发,分析大型工程项目面临的竞争、合作、其与环境之间的演化关系,发掘了大型工程项目的外部融资风险因子。在风险评估和预警方面,本文结合生态位理论,分析了不同评价方法在生态位“态”和“势”方面评价的优缺点,最终优选出两种风险评估方法,分别是:基于三角模糊语言变量的风险因子初步筛选方法:用以初步评价各项目融资生态因子的风险状况;熵权-TOPSIS法:用以评估项目融资生态因子的风险和项目融资子系统的风险。此外,熵权-TOPSIS不仅用于单因子和子系统风险的量化而且把风险评估和风险预警结合在了一起,使风险评估值直接体现了风险预警级别。在风险应对方面,借鉴生态位调控理论,结合博弈DEA交叉效率对项目融资的风险管理进行投入产出效率分析,通过风险管理效率的高低判别大型工程项目融资的风险应对措施。最后,以胶州湾隧道项目为背景,通过数据模拟验证了大型工程融资风险管理体系的可行性,并且,本文所提出的风险管理体系,经过一定的扩展可适用于项目管理的各个阶段。
[Abstract]:To seek an effective financing risk management system for large engineering projects has been a difficult problem in engineering and academic circles. The existing research results all focus on a single link in the project financing risk management system, which results in poor continuity and consistency among the financing risk management links, and weakens the effect of risk management. This paper starts with the main four links of the risk management system of large engineering project financing, respectively, in the research of risk identification, assessment, early warning and response, it adds the relevant theories of ecology to establish a system. Link and cross-disciplinary risk research perspective. Ecological factor theory provides a new perspective for project financing risk identification. Starting from the ecological function system of the project, corresponding to the energy flow, material flow, information flow and value flow of the natural ecological function system, combined with the LC-EBS decomposition system, The internal financing risk factors of large-scale project financing are explored from the point of view of project life cycle and project function system. From the point of view of project coordination, this paper analyzes the competition and cooperation faced by large-scale engineering projects, and the evolutionary relationship between them and the environment, and explores the external financing risk factors of large-scale engineering projects. In the aspect of risk assessment and early warning, combined with niche theory, this paper analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of different evaluation methods in niche "state" and "potential", and finally selects two kinds of risk assessment methods. They are: the preliminary screening method of risk factors based on triangular fuzzy language variable: the risk condition of each project financing ecological factor is evaluated preliminarily; Entropy weight TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the risk of ecological factors of project financing and the risk of project financing subsystem. In addition, entropy weight TOPSIS is used not only to quantify the risk of single factor and subsystem, but also to combine risk assessment with risk early warning, so that the value of risk assessment directly reflects the level of risk warning. In the aspect of risk management, using niche control theory for reference, combining the cross efficiency of game DEA to analyze the input-output efficiency of project financing, the risk response measures of large-scale project financing are judged by the efficiency of risk management. Finally, taking the Jiaozhou Bay tunnel project as the background, the feasibility of the risk management system of large-scale project financing is verified by data simulation, and the risk management system proposed in this paper, After certain extension, it can be applied to all stages of project management.
【学位授予单位】：青岛理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F283

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