我国城市化对能源消费强度的影响效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 10:17

本文选题：城市化 + 能源消费强度　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：在当前国际国内新形势下,传统的城市化发展方式弊端日益凸显。我国尚处在城市化快速推进的重要阶段,随着能源供需矛盾加剧、碳减排压力与日俱增,走一条新型的城市化发展道路是控制能源消费强度、减少碳排放的必然选择。在这样的背景下,厘清城市化对能源消费强度的影响效应,对于我国未来城市化发展的道路选择以及节能减排的政策制定具有重要的借鉴意义。首先,基于城市化的内涵,从人口、经济和社会的多维视角界定了城市化的概念,并进一步分析了我国城市化的发展现状,其次从规模、强度和结构的视角描述了我国能源消费的现状,在此基础上分析了城市化对能源消费强度的影响路径。基于这一影响路径,实证研究了我国城市化对能源消费强度的影响效应。在全国层面上,分别利用岭回归模型和状态空间模型对城市化对能源消费强度的整体影响效应进行分析,包括长期影响效应(协调性)分析和时变效应(动态关联性)分析两个部分。在区域差异层面上,利用固定效应面板模型比较研究了城市化影响能源消费强度的东中西地区差异;基于省际面板数据,利用Hansen门槛面板模型验证了城市化对能源消费强度影响的非对称性,并基于这一特征分析了城市化对能源消费强度影响的省际差异。主要的研究结论如下:(1)通过分析城市化对能源强度的长期影响效应得知:1978-2012年,我国的城市化进程与能源消费二者整体上并不协调。城市化的外延式发展与能源消费的协调性较差,相比之下,城市化的内涵式发展与能源消费较为协调。(2)通过分析我国城市化对能源强度的时变效应得出结论:城市化的外延式发展和规模扩张,虽然以消耗一定的能源为代价,同时也伴随着能源利用效率的提升。而城市化的内涵式发展和结构转换,在改革开放以来的绝大部分时间里都较好地发挥了控制能源强度的效果,并且随着时间推移,这一节能效果还在不断强化。(3)城市化进程中的人口、经济和社会因素对能源强度的影响均存在非对称性:从人口视角来看,人口规模的适度增加有助于降低能源强度,人口结构调整的节能效果随着第三产业就业人员占总就业人员比重的增加而增强;从经济视角来看,经济规模过小或者过大都不合适,适度的经济规模最有利于能源强度的控制;从经济结构来看,当第三产业产值占GDP的比重达到47.12%以上时,对能源强度的抑制作用最显著。从社会视角来看,当前我国绝大部分省份的居民收入偏低,居民消费能力不足,导致对能源强度抑制不力;消费结构中食品支出占比偏高时不利于控制能源强度。最后,基于实证分析的结论和我国具体国情,从全国层面和区域差异的层面提出了可供参考的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the current international and domestic new situation, the malpractice of the traditional urbanization development mode is increasingly prominent. China is still in an important stage of rapid urbanization. With the intensification of energy supply and demand the pressure of carbon emission reduction is increasing. It is an inevitable choice to control energy consumption intensity and reduce carbon emissions to take a new road of urbanization. Under this background, it is of great significance to clarify the effect of urbanization on the intensity of energy consumption for the future development of urbanization in China, as well as the policy formulation of energy saving and emission reduction. Firstly, based on the connotation of urbanization, this paper defines the concept of urbanization from the perspective of population, economy and society, and further analyzes the present situation of urbanization in China. The current situation of energy consumption in China is described from the perspective of intensity and structure, and the influence of urbanization on energy consumption intensity is analyzed. Based on this influence path, this paper empirically studies the effect of urbanization on energy consumption intensity in China. At the national level, ridge regression model and state space model are used to analyze the overall effect of urbanization on energy consumption intensity. It includes two parts: long-term effect (coordination) analysis and time-varying effect (dynamic correlation) analysis. At the level of regional difference, using the fixed effect panel model, the paper compares the differences between East and West regions that urbanization affects the intensity of energy consumption, based on inter-provincial panel data, The Hansen threshold panel model is used to verify the asymmetry of the effect of urbanization on energy consumption intensity, and based on this feature, the provincial differences of urbanization on energy consumption intensity are analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) by analyzing the long-term effect of urbanization on energy intensity, we know that from 1978 to 2012, the urbanization process and energy consumption in China are not in harmony. The coordination between the epitaxial development of urbanization and energy consumption is poor, in contrast, Based on the analysis of the time-varying effect of urbanization on energy intensity in China, it is concluded that the extension development and scale expansion of urbanization are at the cost of consuming certain energy. At the same time, it is accompanied by the improvement of energy efficiency. However, the implicit development and structural transformation of urbanization have played a better role in controlling energy intensity for most of the time since the reform and opening up, and over time, This energy-saving effect is also being strengthened. (3) the effects of population, economic and social factors on energy intensity in the process of urbanization are asymmetrical: from a demographic perspective, a moderate increase in population size helps to reduce energy intensity. The energy-saving effects of population restructuring have increased with the increase in the proportion of employed persons in the tertiary industry; from an economic point of view, the economic scale is too small or too large. The moderate economic scale is the most favorable to the control of energy intensity, and from the economic structure, when the proportion of tertiary industry output value to GDP reaches 47.12%, the inhibition effect of energy intensity is the most significant. From the social point of view, the majority of provinces in our country have low income and insufficient consumption capacity, which leads to the weak suppression of energy intensity; food expenditure is not conducive to controlling energy intensity when the proportion of food expenditure is on the high side in the consumption structure. Finally, based on the conclusion of empirical analysis and the specific situation of our country, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions from the national level and regional difference level.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F299.21;F206

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