关中城市群城市建设用地规模预测研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 22:18

  本文选题：关中城市群 + 城市建设用地规模预测　； 参考：《西安建筑科技大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：关中城市群经济与社会的快速发展将促使大量非建设用地转为城市建设用地。在满足其经济与社会发展需求的前提下,如何对其城市建设用地进行合理管控是当务之急。解决该问题的有效办法是对其城市建设用地规模进行合理预测。本文在相关文献和理论研究的基础上对关中城市群城市建设用地做了系统研究。首先,本文在关中城市群与发展现状分析的基础上,从总量和结构变化两个方面对其城市建设用地利用现状进行全面分析,得出其城市建设用地规模增长较快、结构发生变化等结论。其次,通过深入研究国内外文献,结合关中城市群实际情况,构建了关中城市群城市建设用地扩张驱动因素指标体系;分别从整体和分类的视角对其城市建设用地规模变化影响因素的驱动机制进行系统分析,得知不同类型城市建设用地的驱动因素影响机制存在差异。再次,运用时间序列分析法对2016-2020年驱动因素的数值进行预测;构建BP神经网络模型对2016-2020年其各类城市建设用地面积进行预测,整理得出关中城市群城市建设用地面积。最后,基于研究结果,为提高城市建设用地利用合理性和集约利用效率提出相关政策建议。本文分类对城市建设用地扩张驱动因素进行分析和规模预测的研究思路以及相关研究成果对城市建设用地相关问题的研究具有一定理论意义和借鉴价值,而且对关中城市群城市规划和土地合理利用具有一定的实际参考意义。
[Abstract]:The rapid economic and social development of Guanzhong urban agglomeration will promote a large number of non-construction land to urban construction land. On the premise of meeting the needs of economic and social development, it is urgent to control the urban construction land reasonably. The effective way to solve this problem is to forecast the scale of urban construction land reasonably. Based on the relevant literature and theoretical research, this paper makes a systematic study on the urban construction land of Guanzhong urban agglomeration. First of all, based on the analysis of Guanzhong urban agglomeration and the present situation of development, this paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the present situation of urban construction land use from the aspects of total amount and structural change, and draws a conclusion that the scale of urban construction land increases rapidly. Conclusions such as structural changes. Secondly, through the in-depth study of domestic and foreign literature, combined with the actual situation of Guanzhong urban agglomeration, the index system of driving factors of urban construction land expansion in Guanzhong urban agglomeration is constructed. The driving mechanism of the influencing factors of the scale of urban construction land is analyzed systematically from the perspective of whole and classification, and it is found that there are differences in the driving factors of different types of urban construction land. Thirdly, use time series analysis method to predict the driving factors of 2016-2020; construct BP neural network model to forecast the area of urban construction land in 2016-2020, and get the urban construction land area of Guanzhong urban agglomeration. Finally, based on the research results, some policy suggestions are put forward to improve the rationality of urban construction land use and the efficiency of intensive use. This paper analyzes the driving factors of urban construction land expansion and forecasts the scale of urban construction land, and the related research results have a certain theoretical significance and reference value for the study of urban construction land related problems. Moreover, it has certain practical reference significance for the urban planning and rational land use of Guanzhong urban agglomeration.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.23
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本文编号：1934846