中国城市规模分布特征及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-29 21:21

本文选题：城市体系 + Zipf　；参考：《河北大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：为解决中国城市化进程中出现的种种问题,走有中国特色的、可持续发展的城市化道路,中共中央国务院于2014年印发《国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020年)》,提出走大中小城市同小城镇协调发展,互相促进、共同发展的新型城镇化道路。其中,城镇化格局更加优化是一项重要目标。随着城市化、工业化飞跃发展,经济社会迅速转型,伴生出能源资源短缺、交通拥堵、环境恶化、社会矛盾突出等一系列问题,实现大中小城市和小城镇的协调发展重要性也日益凸显。城市体系是一个有机系统,大、中、小城市各自在城市体系中占据自己的位置,发挥自己的作用,相互补充,缺一不可。研究大、中、小城市的规模结构问题,探索适合中国国情的规模体系,具有重大的理论和现实意义。在以往的研究中,学者们基于位序—规模法则、城市首位律以及城市金字塔等研究方法,对中国、各经济区或者各省的城市规模分布进行了研究,但是从三个层面进行系统研究的文献不多,且在人口规模指标的选取上,多选取市辖区非农业人口,没有进行多种人口统计口径的对比分析。本文选取了市辖区年末总人口,市辖区非农业人口以及市辖区年平均人口,三种人口统计口径,进行了全国、三大区域、各省三大层面的系统分析。首先通过分析城市规模分布金字塔特征、首位度特征,发现我国的城市规模分布存在全国层面小城市缺失、东西部呈现倒金字塔分布、中部呈现梭型分布以及西部大城市扩散效应弱等问题;其次基于Zipf法则进行了三个层面Zipf指数的测算,并用多种回归方法检验了Zipf指数对GDP以及人均GDP的影响,结果表明,Zipf指数值的确对GDP或人均GDP有显著影响,说明可以通过对城市规模分布的调整来实现经济的发展,但并没有得到在q=1时,GDP或人均GDP达到最优;再次利用面板回归模型对Zipf指数的影响因素进行分析,结果表明交通密度与外商直接投资与Zipf指数负相关,而工业化水平与市场化程度与Zipf指数正相关;最后基于影响因素的分析结果,针对全国、三大区域具体情况提出改进建议,使其城市规模分布更加合理。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problems in the process of urbanization in China, we should follow the road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics and sustainable development. In 2014, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "National New urbanization Plan 2014-2020", proposing a new urbanization road of coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and towns, mutual promotion and common development. Among them, the pattern of urbanization is more optimized is an important goal. With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the rapid economic and social transformation, accompanied by a series of problems, such as shortage of energy resources, traffic congestion, deterioration of the environment, prominent social contradictions, etc. It is also increasingly important to realize the coordinated development of large, medium and small cities and towns. Urban system is an organic system, large, medium and small cities each occupy their own position in the urban system, play their role, complement each other, indispensable. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the scale structure of large, medium and small cities and to explore the scale system suitable for China's national conditions. In previous studies, scholars have studied the distribution of urban scale in China, economic zones or provinces based on the law of location-scale, the law of urban primacy and urban pyramids. However, there are few literatures on the three levels of systematic research, and in the selection of population scale indicators, the non-agricultural population in the municipal area is mostly selected, and there is no comparative analysis of various demographic caliber. This paper selects the total population at the end of the year, the non-agricultural population in the municipal district and the average annual population in the municipal district, and carries out a systematic analysis of the whole country, the three regions and the provinces at three levels. Firstly, by analyzing the pyramid characteristics and the first degree characteristics of urban scale distribution, it is found that the urban scale distribution in our country is missing at the national level, and the eastern and western areas present the inverted pyramid distribution. In the middle, the distribution of shuttle type and the weak diffusion effect in western big cities are discussed. Secondly, the Zipf index of three layers is calculated based on the Zipf rule, and the influence of Zipf index on GDP and GDP per capita is tested by multiple regression methods. The results show that the Zipf index value does have a significant effect on GDP or GDP per capita, indicating that economic development can be achieved through the adjustment of urban size distribution, but not the optimal GDP or per capita GDP at Q = 1; Thirdly, the panel regression model is used to analyze the influencing factors of Zipf index. The results show that the traffic density is negatively correlated with FDI and Zipf index, while the level of industrialization and the degree of marketization are positively correlated with Zipf index. Finally, based on the analysis results of influencing factors, some suggestions are put forward to make the distribution of urban scale more reasonable in the light of the specific conditions of the whole country and the three major regions.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.2

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