1978年以来中国省际全要素生产率时空演变特征研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 12:24

本文选题：省际资本存量 + 全要素生产率　；参考：《华东经济管理》2016年07期

【摘要】：目前中国经济正处于由二元驱动向全要素生产率驱动的关键转型期,系统评价改革开放以来中国全要素生产率的时空变动特征将对未来中国经济可持续发展具有重要意义。文章首先应用永续盘存法估算了1978-2013年中国省际资本存量,在此基础上运用Malmquist生产率指数模型对中国全要素生产率变动特征进行了分析。结果表明:改革开放以来中国全要素生产率呈现波动下降趋势,且对经济增长的贡献率很低;结合中国经济发展的阶段性特征,将中国全要素生产率的变动划分为四个阶段,即改革释放期、震荡调整期、平稳增长期、结构调整期,发现不同阶段全要素生产率增长及其对经济增长的贡献率有很大差异;分区域来看,东部地区全要素生产率优势明显,西部地区表现次之,中部地区最差,全要素生产率形成"凹"字型空间格局;总体上,中国省际全要素生产率呈现出"西部优势-东部优势-弱均衡发展"的变动态势。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economy is in a key transition period from duality drive to total factor productivity drive. A systematic evaluation of the space-time variation characteristics of China's total factor productivity since the reform and opening up will be of great significance to the sustainable development of China's economy in the future. This paper first estimates the inter-provincial capital stock in China from 1978 to 2013 by using the method of perpetual inventory, and then analyzes the characteristics of total factor productivity change in China by using the Malmquist productivity index model. The results show that the total factor productivity (TFP) in China has fluctuated and decreased since the reform and opening up, and the contribution rate to economic growth is very low, and the change of TFP in China is divided into four stages according to the stage characteristics of China's economic development. That is, reform release period, shock adjustment period, steady growth period, structural adjustment period, it is found that there are great differences between different stages of total factor productivity growth and its contribution to economic growth. The western region is the second, the central region is the worst, the total factor productivity forms a "concave" spatial pattern, in general, the inter-provincial total factor productivity of China shows the trend of "western advantage, eastern advantage and weak balanced development".
【作者单位】：南昌大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(12AZD042) 国家自然科学基金项目(41261037)
【分类号】：F224;F124

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