基于LA-AIDS模型的中国居民能源消费回弹效应研究

发布时间：2018-05-31 10:10

本文选题：居民能源消费 + LA-AIDS模型　；参考：《软科学》2016年03期

【摘要】：基于1993~2013年中国居民消费的时间序列数据,构建居民能源需求的LA-AIDS计量回归模型与能源效率仿真模型,实证分析了中国城镇和农村居民能源消费的回弹效应;根据Slutsky方程进一步分解出城镇与农村居民能源消费直接与间接回弹效应。结果表明:中国居民能源消费存在明显的回弹效应,且城镇居民能源消费的回弹效应显著高于农村居民;城镇居民能源消费的回弹效应呈逐年下降趋势,农村居民能源消费的回弹效应呈逐年上升趋势,2013年之后表现为"回火效应";居民能源消费回弹效应的直接效应高于间接效应,即替代效应高于收入效应,说明中国居民能源消费的回弹效应主要是由于能源效率提高后居民增加了对能源的直接消费所导致的。
[Abstract]:Based on the time series data of Chinese residents' consumption from 1993 to 2013, the LA-AIDS regression model and energy efficiency simulation model of residents' energy demand are constructed, and the springback effect of energy consumption of Chinese urban and rural residents is analyzed empirically. According to the Slutsky equation, the direct and indirect rebound effects of energy consumption of urban and rural residents are further decomposed. The results show that the rebound effect of energy consumption of Chinese residents is obvious, and the rebound effect of energy consumption of urban residents is significantly higher than that of rural residents, and the springback effect of energy consumption of urban residents is decreasing year by year. The springback effect of energy consumption of rural residents is rising year by year, and it is shown as "tempering effect" after 2013, the direct effect of rebound effect of energy consumption is higher than that of indirect effect, that is, the substitution effect is higher than the income effect. It shows that the rebound effect of energy consumption in China is mainly due to the increase of direct energy consumption after the improvement of energy efficiency.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院;资源环境经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71103164)
【分类号】：F224;F426.2

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