我国第三产业全要素生产率增长及其影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-19 11:55

本文选题：第三产业 + 全要素生产率　；参考：《重庆工商大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：进入新世纪,我国经济发展取得了举世瞩目的成绩,伴随它的还有第三产业的欣欣向荣。2013年我国第三产业增加值达到275887亿元,是1980年的281倍。为了能够保持第三产业的发展速度,要了解我国第三产业全要素生产率的增长现状以及哪些因素能够影响其增长。即要判断我国第三产业乃至整体经济是由增加投入带动的经济增长还是由于效率提高带来的经济增长。我国第三产业保持快速发展的关键是要使第三产业由原来的靠增加资源投入的低水平的粗放式发展模式向高水平的集约型模式转变。本文的目的就是要通过实证研究得出目前我国第三产业的增长到底是上述的哪种模式,并判断哪些因素影响第三产业的增长,针对这些影响因素,提出可以促进第三产业发展的可供借鉴或参考的建议。首先,本文使用DEAP-xp1,计算出了我国2004—2012年的第三产业14个细分行业的全要素生产率的增长率,并使用非参数Malmquist指数方法将其分解成技术效率和技术进步两个指标。计算结果表明:2004—2012年第三产业取得了持续较快的发展,其全要素增长率平均每年增长11.4个百分点,其中技术进步做出最大的贡献,其平均每年增长12.2个百分点,而同期技术效率平均增长率为-0.7%,拉低了我国第三产业全要素增长率水平,说明了我国第三产业粗放性特征明显。其次,本文探讨我国第三产业全要素生产率增长水平的影响因素,文章选取了政府影响力、市场化水平、对外开放水平、经济发展水平、城市化水平等5个因素,对是否影响我国第三产业全要素生产率的增长作了实证研究,探讨从哪些方面可以提高我国第三产业发展。研究结果表明市场化水平、对外开放水平、经济发展水平、城市化对我国第三产业全要素生产率起显著的正面促进作用,政府对经济的影响力对我国第三产业全要素生产率具有负的作用。最后,文章提出了能够促进中国第三产业发展的对策建议。我国可以通过减少政府对经济的过度干预,对政府角色正确定位,提高市场化水平,扩大对外开放提高城市化水平等途径来促进中国第三产业乃至整个经济的发展。
[Abstract]:In the new century, China's economic development has made remarkable achievements, accompanied by the prosperity of the tertiary industry. In 2013, the added value of China's tertiary industry reached 27.5887 trillion yuan, 281 times that of 1980. In order to maintain the development speed of the tertiary industry, it is necessary to understand the current situation of the growth of the total factor productivity of the tertiary industry in China and what factors can affect its growth. That is to say, it is necessary to judge whether the tertiary industry or even the whole economy is the economic growth driven by the increase of investment or the economic growth caused by the improvement of efficiency. The key to maintain the rapid development of the tertiary industry in China is to change the tertiary industry from a low-level extensive development model based on increasing the input of resources to a high-level intensive mode. The purpose of this paper is to find out which of the above models the growth of the tertiary industry in our country is, and to judge which factors affect the growth of the tertiary industry. The paper puts forward some suggestions that can be used for reference or referred to promote the development of the tertiary industry. Firstly, using DEAP-xp1, this paper calculates the growth rate of total factor productivity of 14 subdivided industries of tertiary industry in China from 2004 to 2012, and decomposes it into two indexes: technical efficiency and technological progress by using non-parametric Malmquist index method. The results show that the tertiary industry continued to develop rapidly from 2004 to 2012, with an average annual growth rate of 11.4 percentage points per year for the total factor growth rate, of which technological progress made the greatest contribution, with an average annual growth rate of 12.2 percentage points. The average growth rate of technical efficiency in the same period is -0.7, which has lowered the level of the total factor growth rate of the tertiary industry in China, which shows that the extensive characteristics of the tertiary industry in China are obvious. Secondly, this paper discusses the factors influencing the growth level of total factor productivity of the tertiary industry in China, and selects five factors, such as government influence, market-oriented level, level of opening up, level of economic development, level of urbanization, etc. This paper makes an empirical study on whether the growth of the total factor productivity of the tertiary industry in China is affected, and probes into what aspects can improve the development of the tertiary industry in China. The results show that the level of marketization, the level of opening to the outside world, the level of economic development and urbanization play a significant positive role in promoting the total factor productivity of the tertiary industry in China. The government's influence on the economy has a negative effect on the total factor productivity of China's tertiary industry. Finally, the article puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of China's tertiary industry. China can promote the development of China's tertiary industry and the whole economy by reducing the excessive government intervention in the economy, correctly positioning the role of the government, raising the level of marketization, expanding the opening to the outside world, and raising the level of urbanization.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F224

【参考文献】