减排约束下的中国能源需求预测

发布时间：2018-09-02 07:49

【摘要】：伴随着经济的高速增长,我国能源消费一路攀升,能源需求与供给间的矛盾日益突出,能源短缺已经成为制约我国经济社会发展的重要因素。与此同时,我国提出了“到2020年单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放量比2005年降低40%-45%”的减排目标。未来我国的能源需求将面临环境约束不断强化的局面。因此,在减排的约束下对能源需求进行预测,具有很强的现实意义。本文基于我国二氧化碳强度的减排目标,构建了不考虑减排路径的能源需求预测静态模型和考虑减排路径的能源需求预测动态模型,探讨在减排的硬性约束下,我国未来的能源需求状况,分析能源需求随减排路径选择的演变规律。在能源需求模型构建时,基于经济发展、能源政策以及环境政策对未来能源需求的重要导向性影响,选择减排约束、经济增长、能源结构作为模型的约束条件。研究结果显示：我国2015、2020年的一次能源消费量分别为39.72亿吨标准煤和48.26亿吨标准煤；煤炭在一次能源消费中的比重将大幅下降；减排约束对我国能源节约和能源消费结构调整的作用明显；减排路径对我国能源需求影响显著,具体表现为加速减排路径下能源需求明显高于减速减排路径。最后,根据研究结果对我国未来的能源发展提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid economic growth, energy consumption in China has been rising, the contradiction between energy demand and supply has become increasingly prominent, energy shortage has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of our country. At the same time, China has put forward the target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP by 40% to 45% by 2020 compared with 2005. In the future, the energy demand of our country will be faced with the situation that the environmental constraints are constantly strengthened. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to forecast energy demand under the restriction of emission reduction. Based on the emission reduction target of carbon dioxide intensity in China, the static model of energy demand prediction without considering emission reduction path and the dynamic model of energy demand forecasting considering emission reduction path are constructed in this paper. The future energy demand in China, the evolution of energy demand with emission reduction path selection is analyzed. In the construction of energy demand model, based on the important guiding influence of economic development, energy policy and environmental policy on future energy demand, the constraints of emission reduction, economic growth and energy structure are chosen as the constraints of the model. The results show that the primary energy consumption of China in 2015 and 2020 is 3.972 billion tons standard coal and 4.826 billion tons standard coal respectively, and the proportion of coal in primary energy consumption will decrease greatly. Emission reduction constraints play a significant role in energy conservation and energy consumption structure adjustment in China, and emission reduction path has a significant impact on China's energy demand, which shows that energy demand in accelerated emission reduction path is significantly higher than that in decelerated emission reduction path. Finally, according to the results of the study, the future energy development in China is proposed policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F206

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