中国城市化与能源效率关系的阶段性特征研究

发布时间：2018-11-07 14:46

【摘要】：改革开放以来,中国正处于前所未有的快速城市化、工业化进程中,中国的快速城市化过程也必然提高了城市对能源的需求并深刻影响着城市化发展。在环境问题和能源短缺问题日益严重的背景下,我国积极推行节能减排、发展低碳经济,十八大报告把生态文明建设提高到了一个新的高度。如何提高能源利用效率是我国能源战略的关键,提高能源效率可以缓解能源供需矛盾以及环境污染问题。本文重点考虑了当前中国的城市化发展阶段和经济发展水平阶段,并结合产业结构、技术进步等对城市化发展具有重要影响的因素,探讨了中国城市化与能源效率关系的阶段性特征。首先,结合已有研究文献探讨了城市化影响能源消耗的理论机制,结果表明城市化既可以直接影响能源消费,又可以通过经济增长、产业结构、技术进步等中间变量影响到能源消费。其次,基于动态面板模型分析了城市化与能源效率关系的区域差异,结果表明我国中东部地区城市化水平UR与能源效率EE是正相关关系,而西部地区城市化水平UR与能源效率EE是负相关关系,结合我国各个地区的城市化发展和经济发展不均衡的这种格局,为进一步探讨城市化与能源效率的阶段性特征提供了是实证依据。最后,基于门限面板模型分析了城市化与能源效率的阶段性特征,结果表明在经济发展水平的不同阶段,城市化对能源效率的影响不同。在样本期间内,随着经济发展水平的提高,城市化对能源效率的负效应在逐步减弱；在城市化的不同阶段,城市化与能源效率的关系也不相同。随着城市化水平的不断提高,城市化水平对能源效率的负效应在逐步减弱并且最终转变为正效应,即城市化与能源效率之间存在显著的U型曲线关系。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China is in the unprecedented rapid urbanization, industrialization process, China's rapid urbanization process is bound to increase the demand for energy in cities and profoundly affect the development of urbanization. Under the background of environment problem and energy shortage problem, our country actively promotes energy saving and emission reduction, develops low carbon economy. The report of the 18th National Congress of National Congress raised the construction of ecological civilization to a new height. How to improve energy use efficiency is the key of energy strategy in China. Improving energy efficiency can alleviate the contradiction between energy supply and demand and environmental pollution. This paper focuses on the development of urbanization and the level of economic development in China, combined with the industrial structure, technological progress and other factors that have an important impact on the development of urbanization. The phase characteristics of the relationship between urbanization and energy efficiency in China are discussed. First of all, the theoretical mechanism of urbanization influencing energy consumption is discussed in combination with the existing research literature. The results show that urbanization can not only directly affect energy consumption, but also through economic growth, industrial structure. Technological progress and other intermediate variables affect energy consumption. Secondly, based on the dynamic panel model, the regional differences between urbanization and energy efficiency are analyzed. The results show that the urbanization level UR and energy efficiency EE are positively correlated in the central and eastern regions of China. However, there is a negative correlation between the level of urbanization UR and energy efficiency EE in the western region, which combines the uneven development of urbanization and economic development in various regions of China. It is an empirical basis for further exploring the stage characteristics of urbanization and energy efficiency. Finally, based on the threshold panel model, the stage characteristics of urbanization and energy efficiency are analyzed. The results show that the impact of urbanization on energy efficiency is different in different stages of economic development. During the sample period, with the improvement of economic development, the negative effect of urbanization on energy efficiency is gradually weakened, and the relationship between urbanization and energy efficiency is different in different stages of urbanization. With the continuous improvement of urbanization, the negative effect of urbanization on energy efficiency is gradually weakened and finally transformed into positive effect, that is, there is a significant U-shaped curve relationship between urbanization and energy efficiency.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F224.0;F299.2;F206

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