规模效应、结构效应与区域性差异——基于政府支出对居民消费影响的视角

发布时间：2018-11-07 16:40

【摘要】：政府支出的扩张究竟是挤出还是挤入消费,学界对此研究的结论一直存在较大的分歧。本文把政府支出分为消费性支出和生产性支出,并把这两种政府支出引入生产函数,通过一般均衡模型分析发现政府支出对居民消费的影响有两种效应:规模效应和结构效应。政府支出可能存在一个最优规模和最优结构,因此居民消费与政府支出规模以及政府消费率的关系曲线可能为U型。实证分析发现,无论是从总体还是分地区来看,我国地方政府支出规模的扩张均促进了居民消费;从总体来看,政府消费率的变动对居民消费的影响不显著,分地区分析则呈现出显著的差异性。具体地表现为东部地区政府消费率与居民消费关系为U型,中部地区影响不显著,而西部地区则表现出显著的挤出效应,这主要是因为不同地区经济发展程度不同,政府支出的生产性存在差异所致。因为不同种类的财政支出对生产和消费所产生的影响不同,所以需要合理确定消费性政府支出和生产性政府支出在财政支出中所占比例,合理的政府支出结构才能更有利于经济增长,更有利于促进居民消费的增长。
[Abstract]:Whether the expansion of government expenditure is crowding out or crowding into consumption, there has been a great difference in the conclusions of this research. This paper divides government expenditure into consumption expenditure and productive expenditure, and introduces these two kinds of government expenditure into production function. Through the analysis of general equilibrium model, it is found that there are two effects of government expenditure on resident consumption: scale effect and structure effect. There may be an optimal scale and structure of government expenditure, so the curve of relationship between resident consumption, government expenditure scale and government consumption rate may be U-shaped. The empirical analysis shows that the expansion of the scale of local government expenditure promotes the residents' consumption both in general and in different regions. On the whole, the change of government consumption rate has no significant influence on residents' consumption. In particular, the relationship between the government consumption rate and the residents' consumption in the eastern region is U-shaped, while the influence in the central region is not significant, while in the western region there is a significant crowding out effect, which is mainly due to the different degree of economic development in different regions. There are differences in the productivity of government expenditure. Because different types of fiscal expenditure have different effects on production and consumption, it is necessary to reasonably determine the proportion of consumer government expenditure and productive government expenditure in fiscal expenditure. Only a reasonable government expenditure structure can be more conducive to economic growth, more conducive to the growth of household consumption.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;上海社会科学院部门经济研究所;
【基金】：中国人民大学科学研究基金项目“中国经济短期波动对长期增长趋势的影响:资源的重新配置”(项目编号:16XNH045)的阶段性成果之一
【分类号】：F224;F812.45;F126.1

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