能源技术进步对石油需求及节油减排潜力的影响——基于多因素视角的研究

发布时间：2018-11-23 21:11

【摘要】：从技术进步、结构调整、城镇化等角度出发,探讨我国石油需求的影响机制。研究表明,(1)技术进步对抑制石油增长的作用较小,其节油空间有待提升;(2)经济结构和城镇化是拉动石油需求的主因;(3)GDP、城镇化率与石油需求之间具有单向因果关系,以节油为目的的能源政策不会损害经济增长和城镇化推进。结合情景分析,评估2015—2025年节油减排潜力,提出未来节油减排的政策建议。
[Abstract]:From the point of view of technological progress, structural adjustment and urbanization, this paper discusses the influence mechanism of China's oil demand. The results show that: (1) technological progress has little effect on restraining oil growth, and its fuel saving space needs to be improved; (2) the economic structure and urbanization are the main reasons for stimulating oil demand. (3) there is a one-way causal relationship between GDP, urbanization rate and oil demand, and the energy policy aiming at saving oil will not harm economic growth and urbanization. Based on scenario analysis, the paper evaluates the potential of oil saving emission reduction in 2015-2025, and puts forward some policy recommendations for oil saving emission reduction in the future.
【作者单位】：暨南大学经济学院;暨南大学资源环境与可持续发展研究所;
【基金】：广东省自然科学基金项目“电动汽车产业环境效益、充电站运营模式及政策支持研究”(S2013040015056) 暨南大学科研培育与创新基金项目“我国外向FDI的学习效应及其机制研究”(15JNQM001)
【分类号】：F206;F426.22

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