基于灰色理论的广西水路货运量及其影响因素预测研究

发布时间：2018-11-24 10:08

【摘要】：灰色理论对处理"小样本"、"贫信息"具有独特的优势,能够有效地解决包括物流货运量及其相关影响因素预测在内的不确定性问题。由于广西近年来水路货运量增加缓慢,与发展水路运输的其他省区之间的差距正在加大,应用灰色理论预测广西水路货运量及影响因素对掌握水路货运的发展趋势及促进水路货运能力、物流竞争力的进一步提升具有积极作用。作者利用2009—2014年货运序列数据,应用灰色理论的Verhulst模型及新陈代谢模型对广西2015—2017年的水路货运量进行了预测并对预测精度进行了对比分析。同时通过建立广西水路货运量影响因素指标体系,使用灰色关联法定量分析了相关影响因素。研究结果表明,文中应用的预测模型和分析方法能够比较精确地预测广西水路货运量并合理地提取出相关影响因素,可以推广应用于其他区域。
[Abstract]:Grey theory has a unique advantage in dealing with "small sample" and "poor information", and it can effectively solve the uncertainty problem, including the prediction of logistics freight volume and its related influencing factors. The gap between Guangxi and other provinces and regions developing waterway transportation is widening because of the slow increase in the volume of waterway freight in Guangxi in recent years. The application of grey theory to forecast the freight volume and influencing factors of Guangxi waterway has a positive effect on mastering the development trend of waterway freight and promoting the waterway freight capacity and the further promotion of logistics competitiveness. Using the data of freight transport sequence from 2009 to 2014, the author makes use of Verhulst model and metabolism model of grey theory to forecast the waterway freight volume of Guangxi in 2015-2017 and makes a comparative analysis on the prediction accuracy. At the same time, by establishing the index system of the influencing factors of Guangxi waterway freight volume, the grey correlation method is used to quantitatively analyze the related factors. The results show that the prediction model and analysis method can accurately predict the freight volume of Guangxi waterway and reasonably extract the relevant influencing factors, which can be extended to other regions.
【作者单位】：广西科技大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(15BJY077) 广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(KY2016YB238) 广西哲社规划课题项目(15DGL001) 广西科技大学科学基金(校科社174509)
【分类号】：F259.27;F552.7

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