大连市能源保障绿色风险研究
发布时间：2018-12-26 14:36
【摘要】：近年来,随着经济的快速发展,能源与环境的矛盾日益突出,雾霾天气成为民生关注最热门的话题,区域的可持续发展也越来越受到社会各界的重视。一直以来,能源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,然而能源保障却为环境承载力的保持带来极大的风险,造成生态环境问题的愈加严峻,与群众的环境期望相违背。为了满足区域的发展和居民环境需求,能源与环境的安全性都必须得到保障,从而为地区提供一个稳定高质量的发展环境。大连市既作为东北老工业基地重要城市,又定位于旅游城市,在经济发展的同时受到能源环境问题的制约越加严重,其实践经验对于区域的可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。因此,以研究大连市能源保障绿色风险为重点,探讨能源保障为生态环境可持续发展带来损失的可能性,从而为区域发展提供管理决策依据。根据国内外专家相关的研究经验与分析,本文首先提出了能源保障绿色风险的研究思路。在大连市能流图分析的基础上,从节能减排的角度识别出能源保障绿色风险因子,从而构建出能源保障绿色风险评价指标体系。然后以定量和定性分析在主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)中引入外界干扰系数,对历史的能源保障绿色风险进行综合评价分析,并以风险预测为目的构建支持向量回归(Support Vector Regression,SVR)模型,利用模型对未来的绿色风险进行情景模拟,同时结合居民的环境满意度实现对风险预测结果的分析。最后根据情景模拟结果,为大连地区提出相关的可持续发展策略,从而为能源部门提供一定的管理决策依据,实现国家节能减排目标。本文结合能源保障与绿色风险对大连市发展情况进行分析,能够创新能源风险管理理论,推动绿色理念的传播,促进能源与环境的协调发展。通过对大连市能源保障绿色风险的评价与预测,动态反映出大连市不同发展模式下的绿色风险变化情况及关键影响因素,从而为大连市能源与环境的可持续发展管理提供正确的方向,具有重要的理论研究价值以及实践指导意义。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, the contradiction between energy and environment has become increasingly prominent. Haze weather has become the most popular topic of people's livelihood, and the sustainable development of the region has been paid more and more attention by all walks of life. Energy has always been an important material foundation for the survival and development of human society. However, energy security has brought great risks to the maintenance of environmental carrying capacity, resulting in more and more serious ecological environmental problems, which are contrary to the environmental expectations of the masses. In order to meet the regional development and residents' environmental needs, the security of energy and environment must be guaranteed, so as to provide a stable and high-quality development environment for the region. Dalian is not only an important city of northeast old industrial base, but also a tourist city, which is restricted by energy and environment problems while economic development. Its practical experience is of great significance to the sustainable development of the region. Therefore, by studying the green risk of energy security in Dalian, this paper discusses the possibility that energy security will bring losses to the sustainable development of ecological environment, thus providing the basis for management and decision making for regional development. Based on the experience and analysis of experts at home and abroad, this paper first puts forward the research ideas of green risk of energy security. Based on the analysis of energy flow map in Dalian, the green risk factors of energy security are identified from the angle of energy saving and emission reduction, and the evaluation index system of green risk of energy security is constructed. Then the external interference coefficient is introduced into the principal component analysis (Principal Component Analysis,PCA) by quantitative and qualitative analysis, and the historical green risk of energy security is comprehensively evaluated and analyzed, and the support vector regression (Support Vector Regression, is constructed for the purpose of risk prediction. SVR) model, using the model to simulate the future green risk, at the same time, combining the residents' environmental satisfaction to realize the analysis of the risk prediction results. Finally, according to the result of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the relevant sustainable development strategy for Dalian area, thus provides certain management decision basis for the energy sector, realizes the national energy saving and emission reduction target. Based on the analysis of energy security and green risk, this paper can innovate the theory of energy risk management, promote the spread of green idea, and promote the coordinated development of energy and environment. Based on the evaluation and prediction of green risk of energy security in Dalian, the change of green risk and key influencing factors in different development modes of Dalian are dynamically reflected. Therefore, it provides the correct direction for the sustainable development management of energy and environment in Dalian, and has important theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F206
本文编号：2392261
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of economy, the contradiction between energy and environment has become increasingly prominent. Haze weather has become the most popular topic of people's livelihood, and the sustainable development of the region has been paid more and more attention by all walks of life. Energy has always been an important material foundation for the survival and development of human society. However, energy security has brought great risks to the maintenance of environmental carrying capacity, resulting in more and more serious ecological environmental problems, which are contrary to the environmental expectations of the masses. In order to meet the regional development and residents' environmental needs, the security of energy and environment must be guaranteed, so as to provide a stable and high-quality development environment for the region. Dalian is not only an important city of northeast old industrial base, but also a tourist city, which is restricted by energy and environment problems while economic development. Its practical experience is of great significance to the sustainable development of the region. Therefore, by studying the green risk of energy security in Dalian, this paper discusses the possibility that energy security will bring losses to the sustainable development of ecological environment, thus providing the basis for management and decision making for regional development. Based on the experience and analysis of experts at home and abroad, this paper first puts forward the research ideas of green risk of energy security. Based on the analysis of energy flow map in Dalian, the green risk factors of energy security are identified from the angle of energy saving and emission reduction, and the evaluation index system of green risk of energy security is constructed. Then the external interference coefficient is introduced into the principal component analysis (Principal Component Analysis,PCA) by quantitative and qualitative analysis, and the historical green risk of energy security is comprehensively evaluated and analyzed, and the support vector regression (Support Vector Regression, is constructed for the purpose of risk prediction. SVR) model, using the model to simulate the future green risk, at the same time, combining the residents' environmental satisfaction to realize the analysis of the risk prediction results. Finally, according to the result of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the relevant sustainable development strategy for Dalian area, thus provides certain management decision basis for the energy sector, realizes the national energy saving and emission reduction target. Based on the analysis of energy security and green risk, this paper can innovate the theory of energy risk management, promote the spread of green idea, and promote the coordinated development of energy and environment. Based on the evaluation and prediction of green risk of energy security in Dalian, the change of green risk and key influencing factors in different development modes of Dalian are dynamically reflected. Therefore, it provides the correct direction for the sustainable development management of energy and environment in Dalian, and has important theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F206
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，本文编号：2392261
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