基于技术进步的陕西省能源消费回弹效应研究

发布时间：2019-01-29 03:30

【摘要】：已有的研究表明,能源消费回弹效应普遍存在,并对能源消费总量产生了重大影响。改革开放以来,陕西省的单位GDP能耗在技术进步的作用下总体呈现下降趋势,但能源消费总量却没有随之下降,反而在快速增长。因此,在目前我国经济发展方式转型、资源瓶颈约束趋紧的背景下,研究能源消费回弹效应,进而优化能源消费总量,对于促进经济发展方式转型、突破资源瓶颈约束具有重大现实意义。本文首先梳理了国内外关于能源消费回弹效应理论的发展现状和研究成果,从直接回弹效应,间接回弹效应和经济层面回弹效应三个方面解释和说明了技术进步引起的能源消费回弹效应的产生原因和作用机制。接着对陕西省1995-2013年能源消费总量和技术进步变动情况进行了分析,发现陕西省存在着明显的能源消费回弹效应。随后构建了测算能源消费回弹效应的模型,测算技术进步的外生增长模型,对陕西省1995-2013年的全要素生产率进行测算,进而得出技术进步对经济增长的贡献率,并对全要素生产率和技术进步对经济增长的贡献率的变动情况进行分析。最后,根据技术进步对经济增长贡献率的测算结果,对陕西省1995-2013年的能源消费回弹效应进行测算,并对其变动情况进行分析。结果表明陕西省能源消费回弹效应的趋势是在高位波动,均值达到79.17%。这说明陕西省技术进步带来的能源消费减少量在很大程度上被技术进步带来的能源消费增加量所抵消,想要单纯依靠技术进步达到控制能源消费总量的思路效果并不显著。因此,要优化能源消费总量,促进经济社会环境协调发展,就必须重视能源消费回弹效应的重要影响,按照以市场化为主导的方向进行调整,弱化能源消费回弹效应。
[Abstract]:Previous studies have shown that springback effect of energy consumption is widespread and has a significant impact on total energy consumption. Since the reform and opening up, the energy consumption per unit GDP in Shaanxi Province has shown a downward trend under the action of technological progress, but the total energy consumption has not decreased with it, but has been increasing rapidly. Therefore, under the background of the transformation of economic development mode and the tightening of resource bottleneck, the springback effect of energy consumption is studied and the total energy consumption is optimized, which will promote the transformation of economic development mode. It is of great practical significance to break through the bottleneck constraints of resources. Firstly, this paper reviews the current situation and research results of rebound effect theory of energy consumption at home and abroad, starting with direct springback effect. Indirect springback effect and economic springback effect explain and explain the reason and mechanism of energy consumption rebound effect caused by technological progress. Then, the change of total energy consumption and technological progress in Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013 is analyzed, and it is found that there is a rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province. Then, the paper constructs a model to measure the rebound effect of energy consumption, an exogenous growth model of technological progress, calculates the total factor productivity of Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013, and then obtains the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth. The change of the contribution rate of total factor productivity and technological progress to economic growth is analyzed. Finally, according to the result of the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth, the rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province from 1995 to 2013 is calculated, and the change of energy consumption is analyzed. The results show that the trend of rebound effect of energy consumption in Shaanxi Province is high, the mean value is 79.17. This shows that the decrease of energy consumption brought about by technological progress in Shaanxi Province is largely offset by the increase in energy consumption brought by technological progress, and the effect of controlling the total amount of energy consumption by relying solely on technological progress is not remarkable. Therefore, in order to optimize the total amount of energy consumption and promote the coordinated development of economic and social environment, we must pay attention to the important influence of rebound effect of energy consumption, adjust it according to the direction of marketization, and weaken the rebound effect of energy consumption.
【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F206

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