城镇化对经济发展的影响及其渠道研究

发布时间：2019-06-07 12:35

【摘要】：本文通过将定性分析与关系图描述相结合,提出H1:城镇化对经济发展具有显著正向促进作用、H2:城镇化可通过消费渠道影响经济发展、H3:城镇化可通过投资渠道影响经济发展、H4:城镇化可通过出口渠道影响经济发展四项研究假设。进一步,根据地区实际经济发展水平,将我国划分为发达与欠发达两类地区。设定经济发展变量PGDP为被解释变量,城镇化变量UR、城镇化与投资交互项变量UR×PFI、城镇化与消费交互项变量UR×HC和城镇化与出口交互项变量UR×PE为被解释变量,采用2000~2012年我国31个省市区的面板数据。基于单位根检验、协整关系检验、F检验、Hausman检验,建立个体固定效应模型,验证假设H1~H4在全国及两类地区是否成立。结果表明:H1、H2、H3假设在全国及两类地区均成立;H4假设仅在欠发达地区成立。基于研究结论,本文提出了相应的启示。
[Abstract]:By combining qualitative analysis with relationship diagram description, this paper puts forward that H 1: urbanization plays a significant positive role in promoting economic development, and H 2: urbanization can affect economic development through consumption channels. H 3: urbanization can affect economic development through investment channels, H 4: urbanization can affect economic development through export channels. Further, according to the actual level of regional economic development, China is divided into developed and underdeveloped areas. Set the economic development variable PGDP as the explained variable, the urbanization variable UR, urbanization and investment interaction variable UR 脳 PFI, urbanization and consumption interaction variable UR 脳 HC and the urbanization and export interaction variable UR 脳 PE as the explained variables. The panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2012 are used. Based on the unit root test, cointegration relation test, F test and Hausman test, the individual fixed effect model is established to verify whether the hypothesis H1~H4 is valid in the whole country and two kinds of regions. The results show that the H _ 1, H _ 2, H _ 3 hypothesis holds in both the whole country and two kinds of regions, and the H _ 4 hypothesis is only established in the less developed areas. Based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward the corresponding enlightenment.
【作者单位】：南昌大学管理学院;中国中部经济社会发展研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71263037) 国家社会科学基金资助项目(12&ZD104) 江西省社会科学界联合会资助项目(14YJ36)
【分类号】：F299.21

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