能源消费与经济增长动态关系的实证分析

发布时间：2019-06-15 01:19

【摘要】：文章以中国能源消费与经济增长动态变化关系为研究基础,将中国东部、中部和西部三大地区作为研究对象,基于非参数局部多项式回归的方法来拟合能源消费与经济增长的关系曲线,对曲线的拟合效果、单调性、凹凸性及动态变化特征进行详细阐述。依据实证结果得到如下结论:东部、中部和西部三大区域的能源产出效率及边际收益变化存在明显差异,以全国能源消费和经济增长拟合线作为参照标准,中部地区和西部地区二者之间的关系相对稳定,东部地区曲线变化比较复杂。最后从脆弱性、非同步性和阶段变化性三方面对能源消费与经济增长的动态变化特征做出分析。
[Abstract]:Based on the study of the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China, this paper takes the eastern, central and western regions of China as the research objects, based on the nonparametric local polynomial regression method to fit the relationship curve between energy consumption and economic growth, and expounds in detail the fitting effect, monotonicity, concavity and convexity of the curve and the characteristics of dynamic changes. According to the empirical results, the following conclusions are drawn: there are obvious differences in energy output efficiency and marginal income between the eastern, central and western regions. Taking the national energy consumption and economic growth fitting line as the reference standard, the relationship between the central region and the western region is relatively stable, and the curve change in the eastern region is more complex. Finally, the dynamic characteristics of energy consumption and economic growth are analyzed from three aspects: vulnerability, non-synchronism and stage change.
【作者单位】：中国海洋大学海洋环境学院;中国海洋大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373247;71503238) 中国海洋发展研究中心青年项目(AOCQN2013) 国家海洋信息中心项目(B201303009;B201303011)
【分类号】：F206;F124

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